Johnson/Knaus: Looking Back, Going Forward

Every new Cup Season brings a new list of driver/crew chief pairings, but 2019 will be first time in 17 seasons that Chad Knaus will not be on Jimmie Johnson’s pit box. Let’s look at why the switch was made and its likely implications for the people involved and Hendrick Motorsports.

A Driver’s Career in One Graph

In 2017, I looked at driver retirement ages. It turns out that you can see a driver’s trajectory pretty well by looking at his or her cumulative win record as a function of time. Most top drivers (excluding those whose careers were cut short by accidents or surprise retirements) follow pretty much the same trend.

The slopes of the graph (the lines I’ve drawn) show you the rate at which the number of wins is increasing

The typical driver trajectory shows a low slope when gearing up, a steeper slope when the wins come quickly, and a leveling off at the end of a career

We normally see:

  • An initial period of gearing up that might be one year or a few for a driver like Joey Logano who didn’t really get out of that phase until he went to Penske
  • An increase in slope as the wins accumulate at a regular frequency
  • An easing off, where the wins aren’t as frequent.

That plateau, I argued, in when it’s time for a driver to stop. Not the first time the driver goes without a win, but when it’s been a couple seasons and the cumulative win total isn’t increasing. (Of course, these days, the decision to retire isn’t in many drivers’ hands. There are just too many good young drivers in the wings waiting for an open seat.

In that blog, I noted one big exception to the rule: Jimmie Johnson, who had almost no start-up period and no sign of an ‘easing-off plateau’.

That was 2017.

A graph of Jimmie Johnson's career cumulative wins, almost all of which were with Chad Knaus as crew chief

2018 marked Johnson’s first year without a win in his entire Cup career. Until 2018, 2011 was Johnson’s “worst” year, with “only” two wins. (His best was in 2007, when he won 10 races.)

You might argue you could see a definite downturn coming if you look at a plot of just wins per year.

A graph of the number of wins per year for Jimmie Johnson throughout his career shows a decline in the last two years.

But Jimmie’s had declines before — look at 2011 — and he’s sprung back. No one’s ready to write off Jimmie Johnson yet.

It’s Not All About the Driver

The analogy that racing is a team sport only goes so far. In some ways, a better analogy for a NASCAR driver is as a tennis player, swimmer, or figure skater. There are the people who make fast swimsuits or better skates, but the most important relationship is the athlete and his or her coach.

Like those coaches, a NASCAR crew chief is more than a technician. He is engineer, manager, motivator, psychologist… and more.

It’s difficult to separate the role of the crew chief and the driver because there are usually a lot of variables: A crew chief change often comes with a change of teams (and/or manufacturers). There are few cases in which most of these things are held constant.

But there is definite proof that the crew chief does make a difference: Jeff Gordon. Gordon stayed with the same team and manufacturer for his whole career, which eliminates a lot of those variables. But you can divide his career into a couple different distinct slopes, some steeper than others

A graph of cumulative wins vs age for Jeff Gordon

When I tried to figure out if there was any logic to those slopes, it turned out there was.

A graph of cumulative wins for Jeff Gordon, annotated to show that different slopes apply for different crew chiefs. This shows how important crew chiefs are to drivers' success.

The Driver-Crew Chief Partnership

It’s pretty hard to deny the crew chief makes a difference. But if a driver is in a slump, one of the first things a team owner will consider is changing the crew chief. Drivers are the face of the sport: sponsors will often sign on based on the driver, so you can’t easily replace the driver. (Although most sponsors will acquiesce to change if you can get someone more likely to win.)

It’s not a question of finding ‘the best crew chief’ because that title only exists when you’re looking back at records. It’s far more important to find the right crew chief for your driver. Some drivers have gone through crew chief after crew chief in an attempt to match personalities and working styles.

If you ask team owners what they’re looking for in a crew chief, they won’t say mechanical ability. That’s a given. What’s harder to find is someone who can manage and delegate, handle a lot of things at one time, think quickly under pressure and (perhaps most importantly) communicate. An engineering degree isn’t enough and the lack of an engineering degree isn’t an automatic disqualification.

Johnson & Knaus

Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus have one of the longest, most successful driver/crew chief relationships in NASCAR history.

An infographic showing the statistics for the Jimmie Johnson/Chad Knaus partnership: 604 races, 81 victories, 17 seasons and 7 championships

It’s much harder to find data on driver/crew chief pairs than on drivers by themselves or crew chiefs by themselves, but history through the lens of the partnership is interesting. Let’s look first at a list of race wins by a driver/crew chief pair.

A bar graph of race wins by driver/crew chief combination
Some of the data for this graph comes from Ryan McGee’s article on the Top-10 Driver/Crew Chief pairs. The red bars indicate currently active partnerships. Yep, I know there’s a typo in the title.

I didn’t include the team of Petty/Inman in this chart only because they were competing in a time when a driver could win 27 races in a 48-race season. Racing-reference.info‘s page on Inman says that Inman and Petty won 166 races together. (It might be more: McGee says 187.)

Johnson/Knaus also stand out if you look at number of championships won.

A bar graph of championships won by driver/ crew chief pairs
Some of the data for this graph comes from Ryan McGee’s article on the Top-10 Driver/Crew Chief pairs. The red bars indicate currently active partnerships.

By any measure, Johnson and Knaus enjoyed more success than any other crew-chief/driver pair competing in the modern era of NASCAR.

So What Went Wrong?

Although the announcement of the split came shortly after the team was knocked out of the playoffs this year, and there were plenty of contentious exchanges on the radio, Johnson and Knaus denied it was a knee-jerk reaction to the worst full season they’ve had together. They were just ready for a change. But it’s also true that today’s NASCAR has a higher level of competition and much less space for crew chiefs to be creative — one of Knaus’s primary strengths.

Highly competitive people hate losing. Everyone I’ve ever talked to about the Jimmie/Chad partnership has mentioned how very different the two men are. In a business where you have to prove yourself every week, if you’re winning, little else matters. If you stop winning, everything matters.

When Knaus and Johnson joined forces in 2001, they were both single young men (Johnson age 25 and Knaus 30) whose primary emphasis in life was winning races. You get older. Life happens. So let’s look at how life lines up with the data.

An annotated graph of Jimmie Johnson's cumulative career wins with Chad Knaus.

Johnson married in 2004, at age 29, while Knaus married in 2015, at age 44. Look how different people they were in 2013: A driver with a three-year-old and a newborn and a single type-A-plus crew chief. In 2018, Johnson had kids in school while Knaus had a newborn.

Their professional relationship changed as well: They went from novices to legends. Not being successful is much harder when you’ve been successful before. You know you can do it: you just have to figure out what to do differently.

That’s why they’ve made A Star is Born so many times.

The Experiment Begins

I haven’t kept count of how many times I’ve suggested that Hendrick break up Chad and Jimmie, just so we can see what happens. I figured they’d never do it, but I also hadn’t figured they’d have such a disappointing 2018 season. Can they be successful without each other?

In October, 2018, Hendrick Motorsports announced that Knaus would be moving to the 24 team to crew chief for William Byron. Kevin Meendering (Elliott Sadler’s Crew Chief from JR Motorsports) would join the 48 team, replacing Darian Grubb.

Will Johnson show that his driving skill is what put the pair ahead of the pack? Will Knaus show he can make a Cinderella-like transformation of a rookie driver? Or was the magic in the partnership?

After having been together since 1964, Petty and Inman split up in 1981. From 81-85, Inman guided Terry Labonte to a championship and Petty won a handful of races. They reunited in 1986, but never won another race together as crew chief/driver. Pundits like to wonder how much more they might have accomplished had they stayed together.

Knaus and Meendering

Some people questioned giving Johnson a crew chief with only three years experience at the XFINITY level, but Meendering has a 16-year history with Hendrick starting with a high-school internship. He’s a UNC-Charlotte Mechanical Engineering grad who was assistant engineer for the 24 in 2008 and became lead engineer for Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s 88 team in 2011. JR Motorsports is a Hendrick partner, so it’s not like Meendering is stepping into a totally new environment: He knows most of the people and procedures.

It’s unfair to compare 18 years in Cup vs. 3 years in XFINITY, but that’s all we’ve got to go on, so I’m going to do it. Since you can’t compare absolute numbers, I’ve also included percentages.

A table comparing Chad Knaus and Kevin Meendering's records
While Johnson has never had another crew chief, Knaus has had other drivers, which is where the additional seasons come from.

Meedering’s percentages are better than Knaus’s (with the exception of wins), keeping in mind:

  • Meendering was competing in a lower-lever series with one of the better drivers in the series.
  • Meendering was crew chiefing a driver whose hallmark over the last five years has been not quite closing the deal.

Johnson and Byron

Again, not really fair to compare Johnson’s 18 seasons at the Cup level with Byron’s rookie season. Even comparing Johnson’s rookie year with Byron’s isn’t fair:

  • Byron is five years younger than Johnson was his first full-time season.
  • Chevy had a very steep learning curve in 2018 with their new car. Most Chevy teams underperformed.
  • He spent one full season in Trucks and one in XFINITY before being called up. He struggled in Cup, with only 4 top tens and 13 (36.1%) lead lap finishes.

So let’s first compare Byron’s rookie year to Chase Elliott’s rookie year. Same manufacturer (although the caveat about the new car still holds). Byron and Elliott were the same age their rookie years: 20.

A table comparing Chase Elliott's rookie year with William Byron's rookie year.

Maybe a more fair (although still unfair) comparison is to look at Byron’s three full seasons in NASCAR’s top level. The reason he’s in the 24 car is because he was such a standout in Trucks and XFINITY.

A table comparing Jimmie Johnson and William Byron

Byron compares a little better to Johnson on this scale, but remember: he’s literally in a different league now.

The Future?

So what should we expect to see in 2019 from the realignment?

What Does Experience Count for in 2019

You might make the ‘old age and experience’ argument here, putting up Knaus’s twenty Cup seasons against Meendering’s three in XFINITY. But 2019 brings significant rules changes. The basics always remain the same, but every team already has the basics. Winning is about finding the little tricks that get you an extra tenth or give your driver the confidence to try a risky move that gets them a spot.

When you’re used to looking at things in one way, sometimes you miss things. When physics was making the crossover from classical physics to quantum physics, there were very smart scientists who had a hard time adapting to the new paradigm.

The same thing could happen here: We’ve seen veteran, proven drivers struggle when a major change was made to the car and we’ve seen crew chiefs whose style and approach is more suited to only car than another.

Meendering and Johnson

Listening to Meendering work with Sadler shows that he’s not one of those engineers who does well with calculators and computers, but not with people. He’s good at listening to (and managing) his driver. Johnson won’t need as much management as Sadler, but part of a crew chief’s role is cheerleading.

Meendering is 37 years old, five years younger than his new driver. They’re both long-time Hendrick veterans and are comfortable with how Hendrick operates, Steve Letarte, who worked with Meendeering from 2008-2014, has said that Meendering reminds him of Knaus, so this won’t be a big change for Johnson.

They’re hoping for the same kind of spark that Kevin Harvick had when he went to Stewart-Haas and paired up with Rodney Childers. Sometimes, that spark is all you need.

The Downside?

Taking on the job of crew chief for a high-profile driver is a risk. Just ask Steve Letarte. The pressure here won’t be as great. I initially thought that was because Johnson was coming off such a bad 2018, but it’s actually not just last year.

As I looked at the data further, I realized something interesting. For most drivers, the number of wins is the first thing to go. Many keep getting top 5s and top 10s, even if they aren’t winning. Going back over the data, that’s not the case for Johnson.

Let’s look at the number of Top 10s and Top 5s per year for Johnson.

A graph of Top 10s per year for Jimmie Johnson from 2001-present

Johnson could be counted on for 20-25 top 10s per year until 2016.

A graph of top 5's for Jimmie Johnson 2001-present, showing a distinct downward trend from 2012 onward.

There’s a definite turndown in the number of top 5s per year as well. He had three wins in 2017, but only one other top-5 finish.

The point is that, if Meendering and Johnson aren’t successful, you can make the argument that Johnson’s downward trend is more on his driving than anything else (especially if other Hendrick drivers are successful). It’s also possible that their styles just don’t mesh — a crew chief will almost always be removed before the driver.

Knaus and Byron

Knaus’s job is to win with his new driver, but it’s actually much bigger than that. Consider what Rick Hendrick said when announcing the change:

Chad has the Rainbow Warriors pedigree and truly appreciates the history of the No. 24. I’ve asked him to build another winner and given him the green light to put his stamp on the team and do it his way.

Rick Hendrick (via Hendrick Motorsports)

This sounds to me like Hendrick is giving Knaus free rein to build a team about Byron the same way he built a team around Johnson: Not to turn one driver into a championship overnight, but to create a foundation on which to build for many years.

The 24 driver-crew chief relationship won’t be a partnership of equals: It will be more of a teacher-student relationship. Byron is 20 years old with one (mediocre) Cup season under his belt. He not going to question Knaus. He’s going to ask questions and absorb everything he can, but he’s probably not going to be disagreeing with how Knaus runs the team.

Knaus’s first job is getting Byron through races with his car intact.

  • Crashing out isn’t just demoralizing during the race. It bleeds over into the next weeks at the shop. Instead of thinking about new ideas, the team is repairing and replacing.
  • DNFs also means less on-track time, so less time in the seat — extra important since they can’t test. Elliott completed more than 800 more laps than Elliott did his rookie year. That’s 800 laps of experience lost.

Byron will improve this year. He’s too good a driver not to, regardless of who’s calling the shots. While I’m sure Knaus believes they can win the championship, that’s a long way to come.

The Downside?

While you might think having the best crew chief in NASCAR is a great thing for a young driver, that depends on how much patience your owner has.

If Byron doesn’t improve much, the bulk of the criticism (fairly or unfairly) is likely to land on him, simply because of Chad’s record and the perception that crew chiefs don’t age out of the job the way drivers do. A lot of young drivers are piling up in XFINITY and Trucks for lack of rides at the Cup level. If Byron were anywhere but HMS, I’d be worried for him, but Hendrick has a history of giving drivers and teams time to evolve.

But not forever.

The Institutional View

Doing this analysis got me thinking about the long term. We tend to look at these changes season-by-season and from the perspective of people involved.

But this change is really about more. It’s about the future of HMS.

Rick Hendrick has built one of the most stable teams in NASCAR history. He’s attracted and kept great talent for longer tenures than most drivers have at one company. This is a man who got rid of one of the sport’s most talented drivers because he didn’t (or refused to) fit into the company culture.

One of the problems with the lack of sponsorship is that teams are force to focus on the near future, not the long term. HMS has taken the long view. Rick Hendrick is taking step to ensure that the company is not only successful now, but continues to survive into the future. RCR has a similar approach, but with a dynastic element — which history suggests isn’t always the best choice when building empires.

If you were Rick Hendrick, with two veterans who have been astoundingly successful, but might be at the end of their careers, what do you do? Best case is that you re-assign them and one (or both) are successful with their new partners. But even if neither is the standout they were when together, you’ve got Johnson passing along his years of experience to a new Cup crew chief and a 20-year-old driver with huge potential ahead of him getting the benefit of Knaus’s experience.

Even if it isn’t a win for Johnson or Knaus, it’s a win for the company.

NASCAR and Women in Motorsport

It’s no secret that there aren’t a lot of women in motorsports, especially at the top levels. Why? And is that a problem?

The Numbers

Let’s take a look at how many women there are (or aren’t) in some of the top motorsports series. I tallied up how many women were represented in the top 10, the top 20 and the entire roster of drivers who’d run at least one race that season.

My conclusion is that there are entirely too many drivers named Kelley/Kelly, Jesse/Jessie and Chris because I had to go find pictures of all these folks to tell if they were male or female. Also, the following graphs.

The number of women represented in the top 10 for the 2018 season for nine racing series.
The number of women represented in the top 20 for the 2018 season for nine racing series.
The number of women participating in the 2018 season for nine top racing series.

F1

Since the F1 Championship began in 1950, there have been more than 900 drivers.

  • Only six female drivers (~0.67%) have attempted to qualify for an F1.
  • Only two female drivers (~0.22%) have qualified for an F1 race.
  • The first was Maria Teresa de Filippis in 1958
  • The last time a woman appeared in a F1 championship race was 1976. The Italian racer Lella Lombardi only completed 23 laps before a fuel system problem forced her out of the race.
  • Lombardi is also the only woman to be classified in the world championship points. (Sixth place finish in the shortened 1975 Spanish Grand Prix when a driver crashed into the crowd.)

Trivia

Lella Lombardi raced NASCAR: she competed in the summer Daytona race in 1977. She then switched to sports cars, where she won world championship events and finished fourth in the drivers’ world championship with co-driver Giorgio Francia in 1981. She had her best season in 1985, but became ill shortly after that and died of cancer in 1992.

NASCAR

There have been 2926 drivers who have started at least one race at the Cup level

  • 16 of the 2926 drivers (0.55%) were women.
  • The last woman to drive in a NASCAR Cup race was Danica Patrick in the 2018 Daytona 500.
  • The highest season ranking of a woman at the Cup level in the modern era was 23rd: Janet Guthrie in 1977.
  • The highest finish by a woman in a Cup race was 5th out of 23 (Sara Christian, the first woman driver in NASCAR history, in 1949).
  • In the modern era, the highest finish by a woman in a Cup-level race was Danica Patrick (6th in Atlanta, 2014)
  • Danica Patrick holds the record for most top-tens by a female at 7 (out of 167 races).
  • Danica Patrick was the first woman pole winner in NASCAR at the Cup level.

So This Isn’t Just NASCAR?

No. Many racing series have about the same numbers.

But NHRA doesn’t.

  • Shirley Muldowney (from Burlington, VT) won three NHRA Championships, the first in 1977.
  • Muldowney has a career 18 national-event wins, placing her up there with Joe Amato, Gary Scelzi and Big Daddy Don Garlits.
  • The first all-female national-event Top-Fuel final was in 1982 (Muldowney and Lucille Lee). There wouldn’t be another female-female Top Fuel final until 2016 (Leah Pritchett and Brittany Force).

Women in STEM

By way of background: In 1991, there were 1276 Ph.D.’s in physics awarded in the United States. About 140 of them (11%) were awarded to women and about half of those were awarded to women who were U.S. Citizens. I was one of those 70.

For most of my career, I was the only (or one of two or three) women in any room. I have a lot of ‘first woman to’ things on my resume. I spent of a lot of my career involved with trying to understand why there weren’t many women in the field and what we could do to get more women into the field. Twenty-mumble-mumble years later and we’ve made a little progress, but not much.

It looks like a big rise, but in percentages, between 2006 and today, women were static at about 18-20% of all Ph.D.’s in physics. (That number was 11% in 1991.)

Why should you care about women having access to STEM careers? Because you’re losing out on 50% of your talent base. Especially as China and India step up their STEM games, the U.S. needs our best people in the game if we’re going to stay competitive.

But What About Motorsports?

You can’t really make the same argument for motorsports. The world won’t end if NASCAR remains a male-dominated sport.

But NASCAR might end. And, believe me, NASCAR knows it.

We can argue about whether or not Danica Patrick ‘deserved’ to race at the NASCAR Cup series, but the evidence is strong that she brought new fans to the sport, most of them female and a lot of them young.

The average age of NASCAR fans is in the 50’s. One source puts the average age of NASCAR television viewers for the 2016/2017 regular season at 58. That’s compared with 49 in 2006. NASCAR won’t survive without attracting a new generation of fans and they have get those fans from a population that is far less car-crazy than the last few generations.

Introducing the W-Series

On November 28th, 2018, the new open-wheel “W Series” released their list of the 55 drivers who will contend for 18-20 spots in the inaugural six-round series in 2019. Every driver on that list is female.

The W-Series is F1’s plan for increasing the number of women in the top tiers of open-wheel racing by supporting a women-only racing series. Their goal is to provide a forum for women to demonstrate to team owners and potential sponsors that they’ve got what it takes to succeed.

The Goals

The Series’ CEO is Catherine Bond Muir is a lawyer and finance backer coming from the sports world who originated the idea for the W-Series while at home pregnant with her first child.

The series is funded by Scottish businessman Sean Wadsworth at an estimated $26.4 million for season one, although they plan to enlist support from sponsors to cover costs. The series pays for the cars, travel, training and races. A total $1.5 million prize fund is offered, with $500,000 going to the winner to be used to advance her career. The goal is to create a pipeline into F1 by giving women drivers an opportunity and a stage on which to prove themselves.

“…women racing drivers tend to reach a ‘glass ceiling’ at around the GP3/Formula 3 level on their learning curve, often as a result of a lack of funding rather than a lack of talent.”

David Coulthard

The Car

The W-Series will run identical Tatuus Formula 3 cars with 1.8-L, 270 hp turbocharged 4-cylinder Alfa Romeo engines. Thirty-minute races are scheduled to run in tandem with DTM (Deutsch Tourenwagen Masters), which means all six races will be in Europe and the UK. The series starts in May and ends in August at Brands Hatch in the UK.

The idea of running identical cars is to let the drivers demonstrate what they can do with equal equipment, thus eliminating variables like quality of equipment. Motorsport fans generally don’t look kindly on spec racing series, but in this case, I think it fits the goals.

The Drivers

W-Series organizers received more than 100 applications from 30 countries. The 55 drivers chosen as finalists to compete for 18-20 spots come from 26 countries.

Nationalities of the 55 finalists for the 2019 W-Series. Between 18 and 20 drivers will be chosen to compete in the first season.

The finalists range in age from 17 to 33. Their experience levels vary from former GT4 and F1600 Champions to drivers having little to no open-wheel experience beyond karting. You can view the list here.

NASCAR fans might recognize Natalie Decker and Cassie Gannis, or perhaps Carmen Boix Gil from the NASCAR Whelan Euro series or Toni Breidinger from ARCA. Among other notables is Amna Al Qubaisi from the United Arab Emirates, the first female racing driver from the United Arab Emirates and whose father was the first UAE driver to compete at LeMans.

  • The United States led with 8 finalists, followed by
  • The United Kingdom (5)
  • Germany and the Netherlands (each with 4)

The selection process will include on-track and simulator testing, technical engineering tests, fitness trials and such. The selected drivers will be mentored by

  • former F1 driver David Coulthard
  • Adrian Newey (the most successful F1 designer in history)
  • Dave Ryan (a team manager with teams like McLaren and Manor, as well as his own GT racing team)
  • Matt Bishop (a communications/PR specialist)

It’s important to note that this isn’t an F1 initiative. The W-Series will likely be sanctioned through the British Racing & Sports Car Club, but they are in touch with the FIA.

Is This is a Good Idea?

The Pro

Many of the women who have signed on to the W-Series see it as one more opportunity. There’s little to risk for someone like Decker or Gannis.

For others, this might be their last chance. Alice Powell was the first woman to win a Formula Renault championship and the first woman to score points in the GP3 Series. She won five races and finished second in the GP3 championship standings in 2013. And then…

Nothing. For lack of money to move up. Her response to the W-Series came via twitter.

I see both sides of points… but funding is the thing. I haven’t raced for 4 years because of no funding. I just want to race.

Alice Powell

The Con

Some believe that an all-female series suggests that women can’t compete with men on a level playing field. Toto Wolff, the Mercedes F1 executive director, said formats like Series W ‘undermine’ women in the sport.

An all-women championship is giving up on the mission of eventually making girls compete on a high level and against the boys in Formula One. It is undermining what girls are able to achieve.

Toto Wolff via the Guardian

Driver Pippa Mann was even more vehement in her opposition to the idea.

She argues that there are already women competing in mainstream series who are struggling for sponsorship, and that the money invested in the W-Series would be much better used to support those women.

Lyn St. James (the first woman to win the Indy 500 Rookie of the Year award in 1992 who still holds many land-speed and closed-course speed records) was at first dubious, then came out in opposition to the idea.

Do we need an all-women series? No. Do we need opportunities for women in racing? Yes. It is a male-dominated sport; it is a sport where women need to learn to compete equally with men.

Lyn St. James (via Road and Track)

“Do we need an all-women’s series? I don’t think so. Not at all… If you want to start a new series, that’s great. But put half men and half women in it and give some of the guys a shot that wouldn’t get one otherwise.”

Lyn St. James (via Autoweek)

Is A ‘W-Series’ the Answer for NASCAR?

I think not.

  • Where would the money come from?
    • Last year’s champion’s team shut down.
    • The current Truck Series Champion doesn’t have a ride.
    • If someone had a spare couple of tens of millions of dollars around, why wouldn’t they spend it on an established team? Or an up-and-coming female driver who’s proven herself to have potential?
  • The idea of female-only racing series hasn’t worked in the past and there’s little to suggest it might work now.
    • The W-Series got 100 applications and they were drawing from the entire world. A number of their 55 choices are a questionable IMO — including one driver who has never won a race and claims women aren’t capable of racing against men.
    • Don Panoz started the Women’s Global GT sports car racing series in 1999 to support ALMS races. Very similar in concept to the W-Series, it folded after one year due to the high costs.
  • It reinforces the idea that women aren’t capable of racing men.
  • It doesn’t take advantage of everything we know about helping women break into male-dominated fields.

Critical Mass

Critical mass is a term that comes from nuclear weapons physics: it’s the minimum amount of fissile material you need to maintain a nuclear chain reaction. That chain reaction is what makes nuclear weapons possible.

But it’s come to be used by the people who study representation because we’ve learned that there’s a particular level (generally around 15-25%) below which nothing changes. Danica Patrick was hailed as the woman who was going to open up NASCAR to other women by blazing a trail.

It doesn’t work like that. Yes, role models are important, but they’re not the only thing you need. Researchers have studied everything from Navy ships to corporate boardrooms to STEM disciplines. Change happens when you get to critical mass.

Can NASCAR Reach Critical Mass?

NASCAR’s Drive for Diversity program has come a long way since its start in 2004, but they have six drivers (usually 1-2 of whom are women) per year. Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace and Daniel Suárez are graduates of that program, but the majority of the drivers don’t make it: Some learn they don’t have the talent or drive. Others have stalled out for lack of funding. At this rate, though, there’s no way to make critical mass.

I’d suggest you’ll never reach critical mass with drivers, but it’s possible to make situation improve by getting more women in technical and racing-related positions in NASCAR. With due respect to the communications and PR specialists, many of whom are women, they live in a different world.

There are women in technical jobs. Lisa Smokestad, an HMS tire specialist and Alba Colon, an engineer now also with HMS, but previously with Chevrolet Racing spring immediately to mind. More recently, we have lead engineers Angela Ashmore and Andrea Muller. But the numbers are growing very slowly. They aren’t a lot of women among NASCAR officials or the R&D Center, either.

What To Do Instead

Study NHRA

NASCAR has sent executives to other racing series to study how they do things in an attempt to come up with new ideas. Perhaps they should think about sending a delegation to NHRA. Talk to the racers and talk to the fans. What are they doing that NASCAR isn’t?

Unfortunately, I think part of the answer to that question is that John Force had four daughters.

Seriously.

If they didn’t make critical mass, they were at least close to it. He had the resources to support their interest in racing and no one in NHRA was going to mess with John Force’s kids. So maybe one thing to do is to look toward the next generation of NASCAR kids: Audrey Larson, Piper Harvick, the Kenseth girls, Molly and Taylor Hamlin, Karsyn Elledge, and, of course, Isla Rose Earnhardt.

The Importance of Family

As I looked up the 55 women on the W-Series list, I noticed something really interesting. With very few exceptions every one of them got into racing because her father raced, wrenched, or had wanted to race.

We see the same thing in STEM fields. Women who succeed almost always mention the importance of parents who supported their goals (even if the parents had never been interested in (or liked) science. You cannot over-emphasize the impact on your kids when you tell them they can do something — or that they can’t.

And even if they don’t end up driving professionally, they’ll likely be fans for life.

Start Earlier

Susie Wolff (the wife of the Mercedes Executive I quote above) was a development and reserve driver for F1 team Williams. She retired in 2015 when she realized she wasn’t going to get a full-time seat. She’s putting her energies into encouraging more girls to get into karting, where they currently make up about 3% of participants in the UK.

In Conclusion

There are no easy answers, but everything we know about representation suggests that segregating women in their own series is unlikely to even be a hard answer.

Photo Credits

The photos in the header image are:

  • A Shirley Muldowney hero card
  • The W-Series Car
  • Lella Lombardi at 1974 Monza Formula 5000 race by giuengi from giussano Milan Italy, Milan Italy
  • Janet Guthrie
  • Lyn St. James (Chuck Carroll) CC BY-SA 3.0 from Wikimedia Commons