The 2021 Fall Richmond Preview looks at who’s good — and when. And those are two different things.
I’ve put together a lot more stats on my Richmond stats page. Take a look there for individual driver info.
One place to start is with who typically runs well at Richmond. If we look at career averages, the winner of that contest is Kyle Busch, who has an average two positions better than his closest competitor, Denny Hamlin.
But this graph is misleading. Let’s look more closely at Martin Truex, Jr., back in 13th place. I’ve color coded his starts by owner. He’s made 30 starts, but only four for JGR and only 10 in JGR equipment. (Furniture Row’s alliance with JGR started in 2016.)
He’s performed much better in better equipment (duh), so it’s not really fair to count going back to his running with struggling teams. So let’s compare averages for the last five races to career averages.
Over the last five races, Truex, Jr. leads Kyle Busch by 2.5 position among drivers who have run at least five races at Richmond.
What About Wins?
Let’s look at stats for all those drivers running at least five Richmond races with an average finish under 20. I’ve plotted the percentage of starts that were wins. Kyle Busch leads here, but the same caveat goes for MTJ. He’s stronger than he looks career-wise because he’s got the best equipment now.
That’s the 2012 Fall Richmond preview.