NASCAR changes qualifying rules for a second time this year. The first change happened at the start of the season. I wrote about it for NBC Sports. Four months later, they made another change. Let’s take a look at the new change and how it may impact starting lineups in the future.
The Qualifying Scheme
NASCAR qualifying order used to be determined by chance. In 2008, for example, the top 35 in owners points drew for the first 35 qualifying sports. The remainder of the entries, which weren’t guaranteed starting spots, qualified afterward.
COVID changed NASCAR qualifying. NASCAR developed a “metric score” to determine starting positions for drivers when there was no way to hold qualifying.
Metric scores persisted and became the way to determine starting order. Current qualifying consists of:
- Two rounds of qualifying, labelled A and B, in which drivers are ordered from lowest in metric score to highest.
- A second round of qualifying involving the five fastest cars in each group.
The Problem
The ongoing problem with the two-group scheme is that one set of drivers gains an advantage.
- Drivers who practice in the B-group get information from the A-group’s SMT data and benefit from information from drivers on their team who practiced in the first group.
- The track changes over the course of qualifying. The track temperate can warm or cool; there’s more rubbed on the track for the B-Group, etc. The data show that one group often has consistently faster speeds than the other.
The Pre-Season 2024 Changes
Cars started in the order of absolute fastest to slowest. That meant that the top positions were usually dominated by the cars from whichever group had an advantage.
NASCAR changed the ordering rules before the 2024 season to try to remove some of this unfair advantage. Instead of going by absolute times when ordering P11-on, they assigned cars qualifying in the A session to the inside lane and those qualifying in the B session to the outside lane.
As the graphic below shows, the old rules gave five out of the six spots in the sixth, seventh and eighth rows to drivers from group A. For the race in question, group A had the advantage.
The February rule change lessened the advantage one group got relative to the others.
But only for drivers who didn’t move on to the second round of qualifying.
Positions one through 10 were still assigned by time.
The new rule change extends this principle to the top-10 drivers. So now:
- The fastest drivers in groups A and B will start in the front row.
- The fastest of the two drivers in the front row will be awarded the pole.
- The remainder of drivers in group A are be assigned spots on the outside row according to time
- The remainder of drivers in group B are assigned spots on the inside row according to time.
Here is how the first 10 positions in last year’s starting lineups at New Hampshire Motor Speedway would have changed if the new 2024 rules would have been in effect.
My Evalution
This change improves fairness, so that’s a positive. But — my goodness! — how hard does setting a starting lineup have to be?
Many of the fairness issues could be mitigated by simply changing the qualifying order to alternate between the A and B groups. Start with the first driver in the qualifying order in column A, then the first driver in the group B qualifying order.
But even that change would still leave one problem: The metric score, which determines qualifying order, needs to go.
Sixty-five percent of the metric score is determined by the results of the last race:
- 25% from the driver’s finish in the last race
- 25% from the owner’s finish in the last race
- 15% from the driver’s fastest lap in the last race
The remaining 35% of the formula comes from owner points.
This setup unduly penalizes otherwise successful drivers who had bad results in the last race. I would advocate for getting rid of the metric score entirely. Separate drivers into groups by owner points. It’s much simpler.
Or we could just go back to drawing for qualifying order.
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Look at Supercars – make qualifying a unique event, with a Top 10 Shootout format, but as a RACE, final field lineup set by finishing order of the race, distance TBD – akin to a Trophy Dash, whether 10 laps or 10 minutes, no need for pit stops – and the top 5 from qualifying groups A/B run in that race. Up to them to keep from crashing each other. No qualifying setup, the cars need to be in race trim (no adjustments allowed after Top 10 race)-ie. impound, beyond passing tech. Same conditions for all to set the top of the field.