Internet pundits are complaining that caution lengths are longer in 2025 than ever before. Given that people tend to remember cases when something exceptional happens and forget the many times it doesn’t, this question just begs to be answered by statistics.
NOTE: Originally Posted April 5, 2025; Updated Wednesday, May 14, 2025 with 2025 data through race number 12.
Table of Contents
Caution Overview 2001-2025
To start our investigation of whether caution lengths are increasing, I generated an overview of cautions and caution laps from 2001-2025. I started in 2001 because that was the year when 36 races became the standard for a full season.
But first a warning: The 2025 season is only 33.3% complete as of race number 12. As I’ve said before, you cannot claim a trend from a small number of races. So don’t get too bent out of shape by the data I’m about to show.
Data
The table below summarizes total laps run (including overtime and shortened races), total caution laps, and the percent of laps run under caution. Remember, though, that the 2025 season includes only the first 12 races.
| Total Cautions | Total Caution Laps | Total Laps | % Caution Laps | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 266 | 1520 | 10854 | 14.00 |
| 2002 | 269 | 1572 | 10695 | 14.70 |
| 2003 | 315 | 1813 | 10668 | 16.99 |
| 2004 | 313 | 1774 | 10755 | 16.49 |
| 2005 | 373 | 1783 | 10737 | 16.61 |
| 2006 | 346 | 1580 | 10660 | 14.82 |
| 2007 | 343 | 1616 | 10582 | 15.27 |
| 2008 | 321 | 1445 | 10726 | 13.47 |
| 2009 | 305 | 1457 | 10492 | 13.89 |
| 2010 | 265 | 1321 | 10778 | 12.26 |
| 2011 | 278 | 1357 | 10650 | 12.74 |
| 2012 | 216 | 1128 | 10442 | 10.80 |
| 2013 | 287 | 1463 | 10553 | 13.86 |
| 2014 | 303 | 1570 | 10541 | 14.89 |
| 2015 | 298 | 1600 | 10425 | 15.35 |
| 2016 | 269 | 1469 | 10523 | 13.96 |
| 2017 | 296 | 1485 | 10581 | 14.03 |
| 2018 | 247 | 1328 | 10250 | 12.96 |
| 2019 | 248 | 1292 | 10255 | 12.60 |
| 2020 | 282 | 1433 | 9914 | 14.45 |
| 2021 | 258 | 1289 | 9200 | 14.01 |
| 2022 | 302 | 1596 | 9483 | 16.83 |
| 2023 | 252 | 1367 | 9375 | 14.58 |
| 2024 | 254 | 1469 | 9744 | 15.08 |
| 2025 | 90 | 581 | 3331 | 17.44 |
The most significant data is the far-right column. Since 2001, the percentage of laps run under caution has varied from around 12% to 17% of all laps run. After seven races in 2025, that percentage was 20.1%, but after 12 races, it decreased to 17.4%.
Focusing In on Caution Rates
In my opinion, graphs show the data trends better.
Doesn’t That Prove It?
It proves that the percentage of caution laps is higher (so far) this year than previously. But this number includes two factors:
- The total number of cautions. That’s different than longer cautions. That’s more cautions. The rate of cautions is higher this year than in the past. If the current rate of cautions continues, the Cup Series is on track for a total of 288 cautions for the full season. That’s compared to about 250 cautions in 2023 and 2024. More cautions means more total caution laps.
- Caution length. The second factor is the length of each caution, and that’s the data we really want.
Average Caution Length by Caution Type Data
The table below shows average caution length by type of caution. I’ve also noted the shortest and longest cautions. Sigma is the standard deviation, which tells us how much variation there is relative to the mean. You can’t have a value of sigma when there’s only one data point in a category.
| Reason | Total Cautions | Average Length (Laps) | Shortest Caution (Laps) | Longest Caution (Laps) | Sigma |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accident | 36 | 5.92 | 1 | 13 | 2.09 |
| Debris | 3 | 4.67 | 3 | 8 | 2.89 |
| Engine | 4 | 7.00 | 3 | 12 | 3.92 |
| Mechanical | 2 | 7.00 | 5 | 9 | 2.83 |
| Stage End | 21 | 7.81 | 3 | 16 | 3.17 |
| Spin | 10 | 4.80 | 3 | 6 | 0.92 |
| Stalled | 1 | 9.00 | 9 | 9 | nan |
| Tire Issue | 8 | 6.00 | 5 | 9 | 1.31 |
| Weather | 1 | 14.00 | 14 | 14 | nan |
| Wheel Issue | 4 | 7.25 | 5 | 11 | 2.63 |
Those numbers by themselves don’t tell you anything: Let’s compare them with last year’s numbers.
| Reason | Total Cautions | Average Length (Laps) | Shortest Caution (Laps) | Longest Caution (Laps) | Sigma |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accident | 123 | 5.50 | 1 | 15 | 2.36 |
| Competition | 1 | 17.00 | 17 | 17 | nan |
| Debris | 2 | 5.00 | 5 | 5 | 0.00 |
| Mechanical | 5 | 4.80 | 3 | 7 | 1.48 |
| Stage End | 61 | 6.34 | 2 | 13 | 2.50 |
| Spin | 32 | 5.38 | 1 | 11 | 1.66 |
| Stalled | 3 | 4.00 | 2 | 6 | 2.00 |
| Tire Issue | 20 | 6.75 | 2 | 16 | 3.92 |
| Weather | 2 | 4.00 | 4 | 4 | 0.00 |
| Wheel Issue | 5 | 5.60 | 2 | 8 | 2.19 |
Analysis
You can see that some types of cautions are longer in 2025 while others are shorter. Warning: don’t put too much emphasis on categories for which there are only a handful of cautions.
The average 2025 accident caution length (5.92 laps after 12 races) is up primarily because of one 13-lap caution after ‘The Big One’ happened at Phoenix, of all places. No other caution due to an accident lasted more than eight laps. One 13-lap caution out of 36 makes a much larger impact than when it is one out of 123 cautions.
The average caution length for a 2024 accident caution was 5.5 laps. Since 2017, the average lengths of accident cautions ranged between 4.9 and 5.0. There is an increase, but we’re talking about an average of a half lap. That’s still shorter than the average accident caution length in 2002: 6.34 laps.
The concern is that accidents always comprise the most cautions, so even a half a lap per caution can translate to 30 extra caution laps a season.
Some Caution Lengths Can’t Be Helped
I’m afraid there are some cases NASCAR can’t do much to shorten cautions.
Weather
When a caution is due to weather, I can make arguments on both sides of moving quickly to a red flag. No one wants to lose racing laps to cautions. However, keeping cars on track helps keep the track drier and could lead to faster resumption of racing.
Stalls
There’s no controlling where a car stalls out. If it happens at the entrance to pit lane, the caution has to be longer because no one can pit until the stalled car is removed.
Accidents
An accident involving 20 cars will always take longer to clean up than an accident involving two cars. How badly damaged the cars are determines whether they can be towed or must be put on a flat-bed.
My One Concern About Caution Lengths
During the stage racing era (2017-present), the average stage-end caution length ranged from 5.29 laps (2021) to 6.41 laps (2023.) In 2025, the average stage caution so far has lasted 7.81 laps.
The three longest stage-end cautions were at Martinsville (12 laps, where NASCAR took extra time to try to remove marbles from the racing surface) and two at Phoenix. At both tracks, softer tires create more marbles and necessitate cleaning during stage breaks. So do you want softer tires and better racing or shorter stage breaks? There are never simple answers.
Those three cautions comprise a full 1/3 of the total laps lost to stage end cautions in 2025. Without those three cautions, the average stage-end caution would be 6.3 laps, which is consistent with previous years.
Caution Lengths — TL; DR
- The percentage of laps run under caution in 2025 is 17.4%, which is the highest it has been since 2001. But that’s down from 20.1% after seven 2025 races.
- One reason is because 2025 has had more than its share of cautions so far this year.
- This is the first time since 2011 that there have been more than five cautions in Stage 1 at a Phoenix race.
- If the current rate of cautions continues, the Cup Series is on track for a total of 270 cautions for the full season. That’s 28 more cautions than either of the last two years.
- More cautions is distinct from caution lengths.
- Caution lengths are creeping up in 2025. They’re down for spins, debris and tire issues, but they’re up for accidents, wheel issues and stage-end cautions.
- The largest increase in caution lengths is in stage-end cautions, which are up 1.47 laps on average per stage-end caution.
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I have never liked stage racing and the artificial caution, etc.
But the simple fact that the average stage end is 7 laps is crazy. Why isn’t it 4 laps by rule?
Slow-down lap, 2 pit laps, 1 formation lap and then boom, you’re back to racing?
I know, commercials, right? I get it, but 7 laps is just silly.
My perception of the caution laps near the end of a stage is. Caution comes out with 14 laps to go. NASCAR seems to burn 11 of those so there is a 3 lap shootout. Why? I hate when they seem to do this on purpose at Daytona and Dega. They love to see drivers lose their minds running in P6 to get another position. What they usually get is getting in a wreck. I don’t like this manufactured drama. I’m going out on a limb here and say owners don’t like it either. It costs money to fix cars.