Does Chase Elliott Need a New Crew Chief?

Listen to SiriusXM radio for awhile or peruse Reddit and you will soon find someone saying that Chase Elliott needs a new crew chief. That kind of intense scrutiny is one side effect of working with NASCAR’s most popular driver.

Is the criticism warranted? Should Chase Elliott replace long-time crew chief Alan Gustafson with someone new?

Meet the Crew Chief: Alan Gustafson

Gustafson started working for Hendrick Motorsports in 2000 as a shock specialist. He became lead engineer for the No. 5 team in 2002 and crew chief for Kyle Busch in 2005. After working with Casey Mears and Mark Martin, he was named crew chief for Jeff Gordon in late 2010.

Elliott and Gustafson are in their 10th year together, making them the longest active partnership at the Cup level.

The 49-year-old Gustafson is in his 21st year as a Cup Series crew chief — the longest of any crew chief at HMS. Over that time, he’s amassed:

• 723 races
• 39 wins (third among active crew chiefs)
• 1 championship
• 208 top-five finishes
• 362 top-10 finishes
• 34 poles.

HMS Culture

Hendrick Motorsports tends to hold on to their drivers and crew chiefs. They realize that people need time to improve. You won’t see them hiring a driver and firing him a year later because he didn’t perform, or switching personnel just to shake things up.

Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus stayed together for 17 seasons, but there came a time when even Chad and Jimmie separated. Let’s see what the data say about whether Chase Elliott needs a new crew chief by comparing Elliott’s performance after the first 11 races this year to his performance in prior years.

Wins

Elliott has not won a race this year; however, out of ten full-time seasons, he’s only won races by this time of the year in four of those seasons. By the 11th race of the season, Elliott had won one race in 2019, 2020 (his championship year), 2022 and 2024.

He has never won more than one race in the first 11 races of the season.

The most races Elliott has ever won in a full single season is five: in 2020 and 2022. He won three races in 2018 and 2019, two races in 2021 and one race in 2024. His 2023 season is basically a wash given that Elliott missed seven races due to an injury and a lapse in judgement.

Top-Five Finishes

The graph below shows the number of top-five finishes after 11 races from 2016 to 2025.

The most top-five finishes he’s had after 11 races is five, which was in his championship year of 2020. This year’s total of three is the second-best result Elliott has had since the NextGen car was introduced in 2022.

But I have a caveat because, well, of course I do.

• Elliott’s best finish this year is a P4, which he achieved at COTA and at Martinsville.
• He is yet to crack the top-three in one of the first 11 races. That hasn’t happened since his first full-time season in 2016.
• The last time Elliott didn’t have a second-plane finish after 11 races is 2017.

So while his top-five finish numbers are respectable, they are all fourth- and fifth-place finishes.

Career Finish Summary

Chase Elliott Stats After 11 Races

	Win Rate	Top 2 Rate	Top 3 Rate	Top 5 Rate	Top 10 Rate	Top 20 Rate
2016	0.00	0.00	0.00	27.27	63.64	81.82
2017	0.00	0.00	18.18	27.27	54.55	72.73
2018	0.00	9.09	27.27	27.27	45.45	72.73
2019	9.09	18.18	18.18	27.27	36.36	100.00
2020	9.09	18.18	18.18	45.45	63.64	72.73
2021	0.00	18.18	18.18	36.36	45.45	72.73
2022	9.09	9.09	9.09	18.18	72.73	90.91
2023	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	40.00	80.00
2024	9.09	9.09	18.18	36.36	45.45	100.00
2025	0.00	0.00	0.00	27.27	54.55	100.00

The chart above shows that Elliott is meeting or exceeding last year’s performance in terms of top-10 and top-20 finishes. Although he hasn’t cracked the top three yet, it’s unusual for him to have more than two top-three finishes at this time of the year.

Elliott also has no DNFs this year.

Points and Rank

After 11 races, Elliott is tied for third place in the season standings with Denny Hamlin. Hamlin’s two wins would break the tie if it came to that. But Elliott is 83 points behind series leader William Byron and 70 points — more than one full race — behind second-place Kyle Larson.

Comparing with Other HMS Drivers in 2025

Another way of judging at Elliott’s performance is to compare him to the other Hendrick Motorsports drivers given that they are all running equivalent equipment.

Kyle Larson has five top-three finishes including two wins. William Byron’s four top-five finishes include one win. Alex Bowman has just one top-three finish, but that is still more than Elliott’s none.

The differential is even more pronounced when you look at top-five finishes, as the graph below shows.

This graph shows a much greater disparity between the drivers. The chart below shows the finishes for all HMS drivers in 2025.

HMS Driver Finishes After 11 Races

	Win Rate	Top 2 Rate	Top 3 Rate	Top 5 Rate	Top 10 Rate	Top 20 Rate
Larson	18.18	27.27	45.45	63.64	72.73	81.82
Byron	9.09	27.27	36.36	45.45	63.64	81.82
Bowman	0.00	9.09	9.09	9.09	54.55	54.55
Elliott	0.00	0.00	0.00	27.27	54.55	100.00

Does Elliott Need a New Crew Chief?

This data clearly puts Elliott as the third of four HMS drivers in 2025. That’s not necessarily a bad thing when the top two drivers in your company are also the top two drivers in the series.

Fans are quick to blame the crew chief when their driver isn’t running as well as they would like; however, there is no case to be made for engineering malpractice against Gustafson. My conclusion from the data is that Elliott does not need a crew chief change at this point in the season.

I was a professor at the University of Nebraska when we fired a coach for putting up a 9-3 record in the regular season. When you are used to excellence, good doesn’t do it. That firing is now regarded by many as one of the biggest mistakes in school history.

There is no guarantee that change will make an improvement. It sometimes goes the other way.

Who’s Available?

There aren’t a lot of people in the NASCAR garages who a) have records comparable to Gustafson, b) are available and c) want to step into the bright spotlight that comes with being Chase Elliott’s crew chief.

Rodney Childers was released by Spire after seven races. One part of why that didn’t work out is that it paired two rather quiet personalities. Elliott is one of the more introverted individuals in the garage, so perhaps Childers isn’t the right fit for him. Childers is planning to sit back and wait to see what’s available, so even if HMS wanted him, he might not be available.

If a change were to be made, it makes much more sense to wait until the right person is available. Rebound relationships rarely work.

It’s Early

Of Elliott’s 19 wins, only six came in the first half of the season. That means 68.4% of Elliott’s wins have come in the second half of the season. Like Tony Stewart, Elliott may only get hot when the weather gets hot.

The Cup Series season will be only 1/3 of the way complete after Kansas. Give the guys a little time.

There Are Clear Places for Improvement

Obviously, Elliott needs a win (or wins) to cement a spot in the playoffs. But two other things jump out at me from the numbers.

The first is qualifying. Elliott’s average qualifying position this year is 15.9. His average finishing position is 11.4, meaning that he (on average) improves from his starting position by 4.5 positions. That’s the best position improvement of any HMS driver. Larson is second-best is Larson with an average 2.3 positions improvement. Qualifying in the top ten would give Elliott a better platform for getting a better finish. Gustafson knows this already.

The second is stage points. Considering only points awarded for finishing position, Elliott trails Larson by only 14 and Byron by 23. But Larson has 107 stage points and Byron has 98. Elliott currently has 53. Sacrificing stage points for wins is an important consideration, but this early in the season, it makes sense to play both games when possible. Improving qualifying position would also assist in earning stage points.

A Vote of Confidence

A middle-of-the-year crew chief change signals an owners lack of confidence in the situation. Racing is a mental game and an early-season change can seriously dent the confidence of a team. Leaving the team as-is tells the team members that management knows they can be better and trusts them to find the way.

In conclusion, I don’t think Elliott needs a new crew chief, and certainly not yet. If the No. 9 stumbles in the second half of the season and fails to make at least the Round of 8, it might be time to start thinking about a change. But it’s certainly not time yet.