Does the Gen-7 Car Help Non-Playoff Drivers Win in the Playoffs?

Eric Jones and John Hunter Nemechek had really strong runs at the first playoff race — despite neither having made the playoffs. Their performances got me wondering whether the Next Gen car helps non-playoff drivers win in the playoffs.

I’ll be looking at playoff races from 2014 to 2024 because each of those seasons used the current 16-driver elimination format.

Let’s see what the numbers say.

Who Wins in the Playoffs?

A good playoff bracket should include the best drivers that year. You would thus expect that playoff drivers would win most playoff races. Some drivers are eliminated as the playoffs progress, so I’ve divided drivers into three categories for each race.

• Current playoff drivers
• Drivers who made the playoffs, but were eliminated
• Non-playoff drivers

The table below breaks down playoff race wins by the winner’s playoff status at the time of the win.

The table confirms our expectations: Playoff drivers win most playoff races.

• Playoff drivers won all 10 playoff races in 2018 and 2019.
• They won nine of the 10 races in 2017 and 2020
• In four years (2014, 2015, 2021 and 2023), playoffs drivers won eight of the 10 races.

Playoff drivers never won fewer than five of the 10 playoff races, but that low was an anomaly. I attribute the poor performance from playoff drivers in 2022 to that being the first year of the Gen-7 car.

It’s fair to say that, with the exception of 2022, playoff drivers tend to win at least 70% of the playoff races.

But the Top-16 Drivers Usually Win, Right?

Drivers originally in the playoffs (but who may not have been playoff drivers at the time of their wins) won all playoff races between 2014 and 2020. In 63.6% of the seasons considered, the top 16 drivers won all playoff races.

What’s important to note, however, is that this trend is no more. Since 2021, the 16 original playoff drivers have never swept all 10 races.

What Races Do Non-Playoff Drivers Win?

Non-playoff drivers have won only eight of the 110 races over the last 11 seasons, which translates to 7.3% of all playoff races. But, again, they won no races until 2021. If we consider only 2021 – 2024, non-playoff drivers have won eight of 40 races, or 20% of all playoff races. If we remove the anomalous 2022 year, they won five of 30 races, which is still 16.7%.

You might think those wins happen at ‘special’ tracks, like superspeedways and road courses. You’d be half right.

• Two of the eight non-playoff drivers (25.0%) won on superspeedways. One of those wins was in 2022.
• Two (25.0%) won on road courses
• Two were 1.5-mile tracks
• The final two were Erik Jones at Darlington in 2022 and Chris Buescher at Bristol the same year.

Buescher and Bubba Wallace each account for two of the eight non-playoff-driver wins. Wallace is in the playoffs this year, so he won’t be contributing to this category. But don’t count Buescher out for adding a tick to the non-playoff-driver win column in 2025.

What Races Do Former Playoff Drivers Win?

Former playoff drivers have been winning playoff races since 2014, so that’s not a new phenomenon. It’s still not that common, however. Former playoff drivers won 10 of the 110 playoff races (9.1%) in the last 11 seasons.

Veteran drivers dominated this category from 2014 to 2020: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (twice), Jimmie Johnson (twice), Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch. But since 2021, younger drivers have been the spoilers: Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson and Ross Chastain.

Five of the 10 former playoff driver wins (50%) happened at intermediate racetracks. Three wins were at 1-1.49-mile tracks and the remaining two races came at short tracks.

First-Time Winners in the Playoffs

Let’s restrict our scope just a little more and consider only those drivers who get their first win of the season during the playoffs. In the table below, I’ve again separated them by playoff status.

Although most drivers win to qualify for the playoffs, some do point their way in and thus current playoff drivers can get their first wins of the year during the last 10 races.

No current playoff driver won their first race in the playoffs during the NextGen era. That’s partly because fewer drivers pointed into the playoffs, as the graph below shows.

Note again that this trend started in 2021, not 2022, the Gen-7 car’s debut year.

Only two former playoff drivers (those who pointed their way into the playoffs, but were eliminated before having won) won their first races of the year in the playoffs. Matt Kenseth won the second-to-last race of the season in 2017 and Kyle Busch won the third-to-last race in 2020.

The eight drivers who won their first races of the year in the playoffs are the same eight drivers who won playoff races I mentioned above.

• Prior to last year, all of the non-playoff drivers who won their first races of the year during the playoffs entered the playoffs ranked between 19th and 21st.
• Those drivers had a very different profile in 2024:
  • Buescher missed the playoffs despite being ranked 11th at the start of the post-season racing
  • Chastain was ranked 14th and did not make the playoffs
  • Stenhouse, who won a superspeedway race, had been ranked 25th.

What Gives Non-Playoff Drivers a Better Chance to Win in the Playoffs?

As a fan, NASCAR’s recent openness to change thrills me. As a stats person, however, it makes life harder. I would cite four recent trends as possible contributors to the changes in playoff race winners.

• NASCAR diversified the schedule starting in 2021, including dirt-track races, more road-course races and six pack-racing tracks a year. The dirt track went away, but street-courses seem to have earned a permanent place on the schedule.
• NASCAR introduced the Gen-7 car in 2022
• Atlanta became a pack-racing track in 2022, which increased the numbers of accidents and DNFs, thus opening winning to a larger group of drivers.
• The overall field has become stronger with the introduction of new full-time Cup-level teams like 23XI (2021) and Trackhouse (2021), Kaulig Racing (2022). (Yes, Kaulig ran their first Cup race in 2020, but didn’t field a full-time car until 2022.)

But Which One Is It?

Separating how each factor impacted the results is complicated because they all act in the same direction: more drivers have more chances to win races. In 2018, 12 drivers won all 36 races. In 2022, 19 drivers won the same number of races.

But wait… there are even more complications: correlations between factors.

• The three new teams opened because of the Gen-7 car’s promise of enhanced parity. Trackhouse and 23XI started a year before the Gen-7 was introduced because the COVID pandemic delayed the new car’s introduction by a year.
• Criticisms of the racing at 1.5-mile tracks in the Gen-6 car prompted the change to Atlanta.
• The increased number of road courses and pack-racing tracks helped specialists like Allmendinger, Shane van Gisbergen and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Three drivers who ended the regular season ranked from P21 to P32 made the playoffs this year.

Because more drivers can win races, drivers like Chris Buescher (in 10th place in points at the end of the regular season this year) and Ryan Preece (14th in points) did not make the playoffs. Despite their status, they have contended for wins this year and will continue to do so.

What Do You Conclude?

Without definitive data as to the cause of this trend, my theory right now is that the increased competition and diverse schedule have more impact than the Gen-7 car itself. But again, we would likely not have the additional teams if NASCAR hadn’t introduced the Gen-7 car that leveled the playing field by making it impossible for the legacy teams to continue their domination.