Lead Changes

Does the Lead-Change Metric Determine a Good Race?

People often cite the number of lead changes in a race — the lead change metric — and suggest that a big number means a good race. The metric is simple, easy to get and elegant in a fundamental way.

It’s also misleading. […]

Cautions

2024 Iowa Race Report

The 2024 Iowa race report has some edgy tires, a disaster for both Kyles and the first win of the season for defending champion Ryan Blaney. So let’s get to it! Caution- and Lead-O-Gram We […]

Lead Changes

Counting Lead Changes Through the First ‘x’ Races is Meaningless

The hoo-rah being made over the large number of lead changes in the NASCAR Cup Series through the first 11 races of the 2024 season is artificial. It’s an accident of schedule changes and tire weirdness at Bristol. Counting lead change numbers by themselves doesn’t mean anything unless you consider where the numbers come from. […]