Twenty-five different drivers earned top tens in the first three races of the year. But what does that stat really mean?
The Stat
Three races into the season, a maximum of 30 drivers could have earned top tens. This year, 25 drivers have managed that feat. Another way of looking at it is that only four drivers have earned more than one top ten this year:
- Aric Almirola finished in the top ten in all three races
- Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott each boast two top ten finishes.
This statistic is unimpeachably true. What’s more, we haven’t seen that number since 1973.
But what does that really mean?
The Danger of Early-Season Stats
It happens every season. Last year, people claimed that Michael McDowell’s surprise win would change the complexion of the playoffs. In 2018, people panicked about the low number of cautions after six races. Did you know that the 31 cautions we’ve had so far this year ties the record for most cautions after three races? It’s true.
The veracity of statistics relies on having lots of data. We’re only three races in. Any statistics at this point are curious things to watch, not valid trends.
Exhausted by the long NASCAR season, few writers revisit assertions they made nine months ago. That’s one reason I really enjoy John Roberts and Chocolate Meyers reviewing their last week’s bets each Friday on Tradin’ Paint. Accountability journalism is a good thing.
Wildcard Tracks
In addition to three races simply not offering enough data, one of those three races is a superspeedway. The unique nature of drafting and the large number of cars taken out or crippled by accidents mean that we often see unusual names in the top ten.
For example: Seven drivers ended 2021 with one top ten:
- LaJoie and McMurray (Daytona 500)
- Alfredo (fall Talladega)
- Grala (spring Talladega)
- Bilicki and McLeod (summer Daytona)
- Austin Cindric (Indy GP)
All but Cindric got their sole top ten at a superspeedway. Now, those top tens were earned. They helped the teams with sponsors and the driver with self-confidence. But they didn’t impact the shape of the season.
Remember this: If Atlanta races like a superspeedway (as we expect), we might see even more unfamiliar names earn top tens.
Comparing Apples to Apples
NASCAR has changed immensely since 1973, the last time we had 25 top-ten winners in the first three races.
But in 1973, we didn’t have a core 36 teams that ran all the races in a season. The first race of the 1973 season was Riverside, and its winner, Mark Donohue, didn’t run the next two races. Because the field for the third race of the season, in Richmond, was only 30 cars, there were 110 possible spots in the first three races. Those 110 spots were filled by 86 different drivers.
2022 offered 113 possible spots, but only 42 different drivers in the first three races. That makes the 2022 accomplishment much more rare than the same accomplishment back in 1973.
Lack of Context
One of the problems with citing single numbers is that it’s hard to put those numbers in context. A score of 3.99 is great if it’s a GPA on a 0-4 scale. It’s not so great if it’s a gymnastics score, which uses a 0-10 scale.
Let’s take a look at the number of drivers earning top 10s in the first three races from 2000-2022.
We’ve never seen fewer than 16 top ten drivers in the first three races, which happened in 2015. So we’re looking at a 16-25 scale.
But the second highest number on this graph is from just two years ago, where we had 24 different top-ten drivers. If Denny Hamlin hadn’t gotten crashed out in the Daytona 500, the story is that we’ve matched a number from two years ago, rather than that we’ve set a record that hasn’t been broken since 1973.
Predictive Ability
Let’s compare 2015, the lowest number of top-ten drivers with 2020, the highest number of drivers for which we have a complete year of data. A table is the easiest way to summarize the data.
| Statistic | 2015 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Number of top ten drivers in first 3 races | 16 | 24 |
| Number of race winners | 12 | 13 |
| Number of multiple race winners | 9 | 5 |
| Number of races won by biggest race winner | 6 | 9 |
| Percent of races won by top four race winners | 58.3% | 69.4% |
| Number of Drivers with 3 or less top tens for the season | 12 | 12 |
| Number of drivers with at least one top ten after 36 races | 33/73 | 31/54 |
- We had about the same number of eventual winners (both low)
- The wins were spread over more drivers in 2015, with 9 multiple race winners and the most races won by a single driver being 6.
- The number of drivers earning at least one top ten was 33 in the year that started with the smallest number and 31 in the year that started with the biggest.
The Arbitrary Snapshot of Time
Why the third week? Because that’s where we are. But remember that all NASCAR statistics, from cautions to rankings, change more in the first third of the year than the rest of the year.
So what happened in week four?
Now the ‘record’ is in 2001, with 28 distinct drivers. Previous leader, 2020, adds a measly two drivers to reach 26.
And in week 20…
And at the end of the season…
There’s a general trend of the numbers going down: They’re higher overall in the period 2008. But as the number of races increase, the number of top-ten drivers in adjacent years gets closer. That’s statistics for you.
Cause and Effect
The suggestion — stated or unstated — that accompanies this ‘historic’ number of drivers with top tens three races into the season is that it proves the NextGen car has brought parity to NASCAR. The truth is that we were just one driver away from the same number two years ago.
NASCAR is a long game, and one of the most difficult to predict. Giving the NextGen car a grade would be like you taking my graduate quantum mechanics class and me assigning you a grade after the first week of class. We haven’t had any major disasters. NASCAR moved quickly to address the minor disasters. I’ve enjoyed the racing.
Ask me for a grade at the end of the first semester.
Bonus Content
Yeah, I know I should do this as an animation, but I ran out of time…
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