Can Ty (Dillon) Beat Ty (Gibbs) for a Million Dollars?

A million dollars is on the line this week at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and only two drivers are eligible to win the prize purse: Ty Dillion and Ty Gibbs — although the prize money actually goes to the car owner, not the driver.

The contest got off to a bizarre start at Atlanta, where aggressive pack racing produced 12 DNFs and only 19 cars finishing on the lead lap. The first race broke 100% of the brackets submitted, with 32nd-seeded Ty Dillon beating first-seed Denny Hamlin.

Dillon went on to best Brad Keselowski (seeded 17th), Alex Bowman (8th) and John Hunter Nemechek (12th) to make it to the final race. Gibbs, who entered the competition ranked 6th, beat Justin Haley (27th), A.J. Allmendinger (22nd), and Zane Smith (14th). Gibbs was the highest seed to survive to the final two.

At first glace, one might wonder if there’s any contest to be had. Let’s see if the numbers tell a different story.

The Million-Dollar Competitors

The Drivers

Both Tys are grandsons of Hall of Fame team owners. While Gibbs runs the No. 54 car for his Joe Gibbs Racing, Dillon competes in the No. 10 car for Kaulig Racing. They’ve both been immersed in the sport since birth.

At 33, Dillon is ten years older than Gibbs, who will turn 23 this October. Dillon ran his first Cup Series race in 2014, when Gibbs was 12 years old. Dillon held the record for youngest ARCA champion (2011) until Gibbs broke his record in 2021.

Both drivers entered the series with big things expected of them. Dillon’s career never really ignited. Gibbs has shown flashes of promise, but that first win remains elusive.

The Teams

Joe Gibbs Racing started competing in the Cup Series in 1992 and has amassed 222 wins over 3255 races for a win rate of 6.8% over 23 years. That includes five Cup Series championships and four Xfinity Series championships. JGR is Toyota’s flagship team.

Kaulig ran their first Cup Series race in 2020, but didn’t have a full-time car with a single driver until 2022. They’ve posted two wins in 278 races for a 0.07% win rate. Both wins were by A.J. Allmendinger and both were at road courses. Kaulig has a technical partnership with Richard Childress Racing, but that’s a minimal help because RCR has struggled mightily for the last two seasons.

The Crew Chiefs

Andrew Dickeson crew chiefs the No. 10 machine. Dickeson’s Cup Series crew chiefing record runs to only 29 races, and this is the first year he’s worked with one driver the entire season. His only other NASCAR crew chiefing experience is two races in the Xfinity Series. Dickeson came to Kaulig from RCR, where he was an engineer.

Tyler Allen, Gibbs’ crew chief, has directed only 22 races at the Cuper Series level, 21 of them with Gibbs. He’s also crew chiefed 33 races at the Xfinity Series where he has eight wins. But JGR Competition Director Chris Gabehart has been joining Allen atop the No. 54 pit box since Atlanta. Gabehart, who has 33 Cup Series wins with Denny Hamlin, is one of the best crew chiefs psychologists. He’s also focused Gibbs on consistency in the little things that count, like getting on pit road and into the pit box.

It’s a classic underdog story — which is why so many people are interested in it. It might seem just from the participants that Gibbs is the overwhelming favorite. Let’s see what the numbers say.

The Stats

The tables below compares both drivers’ career and 2025 statistics.

I separated the 2025 stats because Dillon has had to piece together a career at second- and third-tier teams, while Gibbs has run for JGR his whole career. But the picture in 2025 looks about the same as the career picture. On paper (so to speak), Gibbs seems the favorite.

Gibbs finishes, on average, about five positions better than Dillon this season. I even considered stats at only oval tracks, but the numbers don’t budge. Dillon has a 2025 average finish of 22.8 at ovals this year, while Gibbs has a 17.3 average finish.

Dillon’s best finish this year is eighth, but that was at the most recent Atlanta race, which isn’t a good predictor for Indianapolis. Gibbs came in second at the Chicago Street Race — also not a good predictor for Indy.

At oval tracks, Dillon’s best finish this year is 12th at Texas, while Gibbs’ is third at Bristol and Michigan. That latter finish is especially relevant because Michigan is the most similar track to Indianapolis we’ve run this year.

On average, Gibbs wins. But here’s the thing: This tournament is about averages. The million dollars is determined by just one race. And the winner doesn’t even have to win the race: he just has to beat the other guy. Just this one time.

One Million-Dollar Race

This is where someone points out that, in their only head-to-head match-up at Indianapolis, Dillon beat Gibbs. That’s where I point out that numbers without context are dangerous.

At Indy last year, Gibbs ran in the top 10 until he reported engine problems. He finished 23rd, the second-to-last car on the lead lap. Dillon, who didn’t run a full season last year, was in Richard Childress Racing equipment and didn’t crack the top-20 until about 40 laps from race end. He finished 19th by staying out during two late-race cautions.

How Often Does Dillon Best Gibbs?

Lacking any other head-to-head oval Indy races, let’s examine how the two drivers fare against each other this year.

Over 21 head-to-head match ups, Dillon finished better than Gibbs in 9 races or 42.8% of the time. However, three of those instances were at pack-racking tracks and one at COTA. Dillon beat Gibbs on ovals five times out of 13 races (38.5%). One of those five races was a Gibbs DNF (Phoenix.)

Mistakes Could Determine the Winner

Meaningful penalties are those that could change the outcome of a race. They do not count penalties like speeding on pit road or too many men over the wall after an accident.

For example: Dillon sped on pit road at Phoenix on lap 270 of a 310-lap race. He had been running in the top-five before the penalty. A speeding penalty at Bristol last fall eliminated Gibbs from the playoffs.

In 2025, Dillon has three speeding penalties, four crew penalties and two starting from the back. Gibbs also had to start from the back twice, has two speeding penalties and one penalty for improper pit entry/exit. His pit crew has not incurred any meaningful penalties.

If I were their crew chiefs, I might set their dashes a little conservatively to prevent speeding penalties.

The other place crew chiefs have an impact is in starting position. Failing inspection too many times, or other problems that force a driver to start in the back, could prove a huge disadvantage. But starting position is important for another reason.

If you look back to the stats, you’ll see that Dillon doesn’t qualify as well as Gibbs. But Dillion usually finishes better than he qualifies. Gibbs usually qualifies better than he finishes.

Dillon’s Advantages

Intangibles will play a major role in determining the winner. Here’s where Dillon has the advantage.

Dillon has Nothing to Lose

With five races left in the regular season, Gibbs sits 16th in points. He’s behind six other drivers in the playoff standings. He’s the only one of the four JGR drivers not already confirmed for the playoffs. Gibbs must prioritize winning and earning points over the in-season competition.

Dillon is a long shot to make it into the playoffs. He would have to win, and his best chance at winning is Daytona, not Indy. The allows Dillon to take more chances than Gibbs can. And while JGR certainly wouldn’t sneeze at a million dollars, that money (and the prestige of winning) would have a much bigger impact at Kaulig than at JGR.

Dillon has Less to Prove

Just reaching the finals is a victory for Dillon and Kaulig. They’ve earned new fans and gotten more media attention this summer than they often do in a year. No one is surprised that Gibbs made it this far. And most people view Gibbs as having a huge advantage in terms of resources and maybe even talent.

Gibbs, on the other hand, reached the 100-race mark this year. Most current young drivers win before or around that time in their careers. Gibbs is yet to see Victory Lane in a Cup Series race.

Maturity and Reputation

Gibbs is an emotional driver with a win-at-an-costs ethos. Remember him dumping teammate Brandon Jones to get a race win in the 2022 Xfinity season — when Gibbs was already in the playoffs? His retaliation against Justin Haley at Bowman Grey this year? The apologies he’s had to make after on-track overagressiveness? Neither Gabehart nor Allen is in the car and there’s only so much you can do to calm down an angry driver with a hair trigger.

By all accounts, Dillon has reconciled himself to the fact that he’s not going to have a championship career. He’s racing for the love of the sport, and that million dollars, of course. Not that Dillon can’t also rile up his fellow drivers sometimes: ask Denny Hamlin or Chase Elliott how hard Dillon fights to stay on the lead lap.

But Gibbs has far more beef with other drivers than Dillon. No one is going to pull over for another driver, but Dillon himself showed last week that a good blocker can utterly confound a good driver. Even drivers who don’t have a beef with Gibbs may not be able to resist a feel-good underdog story.

So where do I end up on the battle? I think it’s a lot closer than the numbers would seem to indicate. This will be a battle of execution. On any given Sunday, talent, mistakes and luck all determine the winner.