How to Think About The Chase

With five races left in the regular season, I’m thinking about The Chase a lot. I’m wondering who is going to earn that top seed and the 100 extra points to start The Chase with. Coming in second puts you at a 25-point deficit before you’ve even run a race.

And what about those drivers hovering around the 16th-place cutoff in the driver and owner standings? Which drivers are likely to make it and which won’t?

The problem is that the standard way of presenting the standings is, well, wrong.

Most ‘Cut Line’ Thinking About the Chase is Embarrassingly Wrong

The most common way of presenting The Chase makes a math teacher want to hang up her chalk. A lot of places, especially television, do this. I picked the NASCAR website as my example because the fact that they do it makes everyone else think it’s OK.

Here’s the most recent rundown from NASCAR.com

When we see something repeatedly, we often stop seeing it critically. But there’s a huge math error here that makes people with fundamental numeracy skills clench their teeth.

Austin Cindric, it tells us, is 33 points above the cut line. Cindric has 495 points, which means the cut line must be at 495-33 = 462 points.

But wait. Erik Jones, 17th in points, has 462 points. According to the table, he is 33 points ABOVE the cut line. That means the cutline is at 462 + 33 = 495 points.

You don’t have to be a math wizard to know that both of these statements cannot be true.

The truth is:

• Cindric’s 495 points IS the cut line.
• Jones is 33 points back from the cut line
• Eighteenth-place Ryan Preece is 48 points from the cut line

Even more importantly, the battle just above the cut line is tighter than this type of chart shows.

• Joey Logano, in 15th place, is only 16 points above the cut line, not 49.
• Shane van Gisbergen, at 516 points, is only 21 points above the cut line.
• There are 49 points between Logano in 15th and Jones in 17th.

Isn’t This Just a Pedantic Nit?

You might be thinking this is just the kind of technical difference that someone fluent in math might point out to show everyone else that they’re smart.

First of all, this is basic addition and subtraction. You learn that, where…? Fourth grade? We’re not talking calculus, or even algebra. This numerical disconnect stands out to me (and others) the same way I notice when someone starts talking about ‘driving a NASCAR.’ Misusing terms is a clear sign that the person talking isn’t very familiar with NASCAR

I will never understand why people are embarrassed to be illiterate, but brag about being innumerate. We teach mathematics not for its own sake, but to develop a form of rigorous reasoning that you can on numbers the same way you use basic principles of logic on words.

And that’s important because a lot of people use numbers wrong. The number of people spewing numerical gibberish is growing as it becomes easier to generate fancy tables and graphs using programs and AI that don’t require you to understand anything. Some of these people are well-intentioned, but some want to take advantage of your lack of numeracy to manipulate you.

So What’s the Right Way to Think About The Chase?

This is the great thing about math. There are multiple ways to think about it. Here’s the chart I find most useful. The first two columns are the same as any chart about seasons points: The drivers’ rank and how many total points he has. I also include points from leader, another column most charts have.

From there, I move to the number of points from the driver in 16th position. It’s helpful here to know that there are five races left before the Chase starts, which means a total of 76 * 5 = 380 points. That represents the most points any driver could get before the Chase starts.

Of course, that would mean winning every race, every stage and running the fastest lap. But it sets the scale for us.

The last column is the one I find most useful. You are starting to hear people talk in terms of points per race. Most crew chiefs think about the standings that way and their language has started to trickle down to the drivers, then to the media, and then to the fans.

What It All Means

I’ve colored the chart:

• Green for drivers who are at least one full race above 16th.
• Yellow for drivers who are within one full race of 16th.
• Red for drivers who are more than one full race out of 16th.

More usefully, for me, is the purple column. In that column, I’ve colored drivers scoring average points per race more purple the higher their average.

Why Use Average Points Per Race

The top reason is that you’re not looking at an ever increasing number of points during the year. The average points per race will always range from 1 to 76. It may bounce around at the start of the season, but everything does. If there’s one thing I never tire of saying, it’s that you shouldn’t worry too much about points until we get eight-10 races into the season.

You’re not worrying about numbers like 842 and 774: Instead, you’re comparing 40.1 and 36.9. It’s much easier for me to subtract the latter two numbers — or even just picture the difference between them — than it is with the former two numbers.

After ten races, Tyler Reddick had an average of 48.4 points per race and Hamlin 37.4. You can watch those numbers gradually cross.

After 15 races, Reddick was down to an average of 44.6 points per race and Hamlin up to 41.2 points per race. That’s a much easier picture in my mind than comparing 484 and 374 points after 10 races and 669 vs. 618 points after 15 races.

The Top Drivers in Terms of Average Points per Race

The points and the points per race identify three standout drivers of the year. The second two, Reddick and Blaney, are within 100 points of Denny Hamlin. But compare their average points per race.

• Hamlin is in class by himself, scoring an average of over 40 points per race.
• Reddick and Blaney are within a point of each other, with essentially 36.9 and 36.0 points per race respectively.

Hamlin has been outscoring them by an average of two points per race. This makes every stage point and every additional finish position critical in the last five races if Reddick and/or Blaney are to catch up.

Ty Gibbs is almost part of that group, with an average of 33.7 points per race. He’s not up there with Reddick and Blaney, but his next closest competition is Elliott and Larson, both hovering around the 30-point-per-race average.

Things are close from Briscoe (eighth, with 27.95 average points per race) to Byron (13th: 26.00 average points per race.) That’s again only an average of two points per race between those five drivers.

The Middle Group

Looking at things in terms of average points per race also helps get a grip on how close things are the proverbial ‘bubble’.

Bubba Wallace is 13th in the standings with an average of 25.29 points per race. But the difference from Wallace to Keselowski, the last driver within one race of the 16th spot, is only five points per race. Factor in that it’s a lot easier to improve five positions per race when you’re running top 15 or top 20 than when you’re running top five.

The Lower Group

Drivers in the red section are going to have have two really amazing races. If Michael McDowell or Ross Chastain (both 83 points under 16th) sweep the next race, they still can’t break the top 16, even if Cindric scores no points.

The yellow group of drivers are those who may or may not make the Chase. They’re all within one race of 16th. But looking at t