Shane van Gisbergen’s Odds in the Playoffs

Shane van Gisbergen’s odds of advancing deep into the playoffs seem high if you look only at his four wins and 22 playoff points. Going into Richmond, he’s tied with Denny Hamlin for most wins this year. van Gisbergen is third in playoff points, trailing only Hamlin (24) and Kyle Larson (23).

But there’s a caveat. (Isn’t there always?)

All four of SvG’s wins have been at road or street courses, neither of which appear in the first round of the playoffs.

So how far can van Gisbergen make it?

Van Gisbergen’s Odds: Playoff Points and Wins

Let’s start by taking a look at the current field. I’ve included Chris Buescher, although that could change in the next two races. But if Buescher makes it in on points, I believe it is the first time in the stage-racing era that someone entered the playoffs with negative playoff points.

I’ve sorted the table according to playoff points, as that is what will matter most when the playoffs begin.

Two races remain in the regular season. That means:

• A maximum of four stage-win playoff points are left in the regular season.
• A maximum of 10 playoff points will be awarded to the winner(s) of the next two races
• Since 2018, NASCAR awards a 15-playoff-point bonus for the regular-season champion. The regular season champion is the driver with the most points at the end of 26 races.

So here are some worst-case scenarios from the van Gisbergen point of view.

• If William Byron (currently leading the points with at 812) wins the regular-season championship, that vaults him to at least 32 playoff points.
  • In the worst-case situation for everyone except Byron,
    • Byron wins Richmond and Daytona and the season championship, putting him at a minimum of 42 playoff points
    • He could have a maximum of 46 playoff points if he wins all four remaining stages.
• If Chase Elliott (currently 42 points behind Byron in point standings) wins the regular-season championship, he would enter the playoffs with a minimum of 21 playoff points.
  • In the best-case situation for Elliott:
    • Elliott wins Richmond and Daytona and the season championship, putting him at 36 points.
    • Elliott wins both races, the season championship and all four stages would give him 40 points.
• If Hamlin (81 points behind) wins the next two races and all four stages, he would enter the championship with 38 playoff points.
• If aliens replace Byron and Elliott with doppelgangers who are really, really bad drivers and Hamlin wins the championship and sweeps the remaining two races, he would enter the playoffs with 53 playoff points.

This is all to say that likely will be one driver with a substantial lead when the playoffs start. So although SvG is only two points behind the playoff point leader now, he will be at least 17 playoff points behind the leader going into Darlington.

That still means van Gisbergen is likely to enter the playoffs ranked at least fourth.

In the stage-racing era (2017 to present), only 4 drivers out of 32 who started the playoffs ranked in the top 4 did NOT survive to the Round of Eight. The bad news is that, if it can happen to Kyle Larson, it can happen to anyone.

And the 28 drivers that did make it to the Round of 8 did so by winning stages and races.

A couple more observations about points and playoffs

• The eventual champion started the playoffs with the most playoff points in 2017, 2019 and 2021. In 2022, the second-ranked driver won the championship.
• Champions came from further back in the rankings in: 2018 (sixth), 2020 (fifth), 2023 (12^th) and 2024 (ninth).
  • Two out of three of the Next Gen-era champions started the tournament seeded outside the top eight.
• In 2023, eventual champion Blaney entered the playoffs with eight playoff points. Martin Truex Jr. entered with 36 points (tied for first) and didn’t make the Championship 4.
• Last year, Larson entered the playoffs with 40 points and didn’t make the Championship 4.
• In 2024, Logano entered with seven playoff points. Larson (40 playoff points) and Bell (32) didn’t make the Championship Four.

Van Gisbergen’s 22 playoff points are helpful, but they are not enough to guarantee that he will make the round of eight. Or even survive the first round.

Van Gisbergen’s Odds for Surviving an All-Oval First Round

If we rank playoff drivers by points, Van Gisbergen sits at the very bottom with 441 points or 54.3% of leader Byron’s 812 points. While SvG has more finish points (points awarded by finishing position) than Josh Berry or Austin Cindric, only Ross Chastain has fewer stage points than van Gisbergen.

Van Gisbergen’s average points per race stands at 18.4, the lowest of any driver listed here. But the playoff picture is worse than that because 237 points (53.8% of all SvG’s points) came from the four road course races and the Chicago Street Race. That leaves him with an average of 10.7 points per oval — and the first round of the playoffs are all ovals.

Let’s look at some of the likely playoff contenders’ average finishes broken down by track type. I removed all DNFs before making the table below, which makes these numbers the most optimistic they could be. Unfortunately, van Gisbergen’s 2025 DNFs all at playoff tracks: Phoenix, Las Vegas and Bristol.

At those three races, SvG ran:

• Less than one-third of the laps at Phoenix
• 41.6% of the Bristol laps
• 73.0% of the laps at Las Vegas.

I’ve highlighted the best drivers in each category in the table below.

Even with the DNFs removed, van Gisbergen has the worst average finish of any playoff contender at oval tracks. It’s not really even a contest.

Darlington, World Wide Technology Raceway and Bristol comprise the first round of the playoff. That’s one track less than a mile and two tracks between 1 and 1.49 miles.

At tracks shorter than a mile, Chase Briscoe has a the best average finish (5.00), with no finish worse than ninth this year. SvG’s average at these super-short tracks is 32.5, with a best finish of 31^st. The 208 laps he ran in the spring at Bristol are the only laps he has in a Cup Series car.

The 1-to-1.49-mile tracks are Van Gisbergen’s best category of oval, but his average finish is still just 25.00. Van Gisbergen said last week that Darlington was his “favorite oval”. He’s run just two Cup Series races there, with a 26^th-place finish last year and 20^th-place finish earlier this year. That P20 isn’t his best oval finish of the year, however. That would be Charlotte, where he finished 14^th. It remains to be seen whether his relative success at Charlotte will transfer to Las Vegas, where his average finish is 31.5, with one P29 and one P34 finish.

His likely performance at Gateway is a mystery to SvG and to me. He hasn’t run New Hampshire or Richmond, two of the three comparison tracks for Gateway, and his has only 100 laps at Phoenix, the third comparison track.

I haven’t really been to Gateway before, so it’s going to be very difficult.”

“I haven’t really been to Gateway before, so it’s going to be very difficult,” van Gisbergen said at last week’s media availability.

The Positives

While his development as an oval driver is ongoing, Van Gisbergen has a lot intangibles going for him.

• This is a driver with five cups wins in just 38 starts, even if those wins are all on non-ovals.
• He just signed a contract extension, signaling Trackhouse Racing’s confidence in his potential. This year isn’t his only chance of winning at championship.
• He’s 36 years old, giving him a level of maturity and experience that will help him improve faster.
• He has a storied career in the Australian SuperCars series, including three championships there.

SvG Trivia

I’m including this because I feel guilty writing such a pessimistic assessment. I really do like the man!

• He is an official Nice Guy^TM. He’s almost always smiling, even when talking about how homesick he is living in the States, away from his family.
• His nickname is ‘Cheese’. As a native Wisconsite, I approve.
• He has two rescue dogs: Ronald (an Australian hound) and Steve (an American red heeler.)
• If he makes it to the second round, he’s got a great chance at making it to the third.

Below is Ronald, from SvG’s Twitter account. How many of you have a dog who tells the engineers how to set up the car?

These positives don’t necessarily increase his chances of progressing in this year’s playoffs, but as long as there are road and/or street courses on the schedule, SvG will continue to appear in NASCAR’s playoffs. van Gisbergen’s odds might not be great for this year. But I would wager that next year’s will be even better.