A Single Mistake in This Year’s Playoffs Can Be Fatal

In the closest playoffs since this format started in 2017, even Ross Chastain’s go-for-broke last-lap attempt to advance to the Round of 8 was unsuccessful. One might argue that it wasn’t one mistake that cost Chastain a potential championship, but two. He muffed the pit-road exit after his post-Stage 1 pit stop, then mistakenly got the car in the wrong gear leaving pit road on Lap 87 and incurred a speeding penalty.

But his competitor for that last spot, the No. 22 of Joey Logano, also made a mistake with an almost-12-second pit stop on Lap 74. That somewhat offset the cost of Chastain’s mistakes.

Chastain and Logano each entered the playoffs with single-digit playoff points, but performed well enough that they could still make the cut based on points rather than winning. That’s why their mistakes, rather than (for example) the slow pit stop by the No. 20 car, made a difference.

In any elimination format (like my favorite), the first couple of rounds are mostly of interest for underdog potential. See, for example, Christopher Bell’s last-race-of-the-round wins in 2022. They can even happen in the Round of 8. While there is still potential for underdog upsets this year, only one underdog remains.

Joey Logano.

Playoff Points Insulate Drivers from Mistakes

Some people complain that the current playoff format erases regular-season accomplishments. While race points don’t carry over, playoff points do. Only at the final race of the year in Phoenix does a single race decide the championship and nothing that happened before matters.

Luckily for drivers, playoff points can compensate for mistakes in the first three rounds. Let’s look back to how this year’s playoffs started. I’ve subtracted the 2000 point add-on so you can actually see the differences.

The 2025 playoffs are most competitive playoffs in the current format. At the start:

• The gap from P1 to P16 was the smallest it’s ever been: just 30 points.
• The highest-ranked driver accrued the smallest number of playoff points for a leader ever.
  • Kyle Larson and William Byron both earned 32 playoff points. Larson was ranked P1 because he had more wins.
  • Compare that to, for example, 2020, when Larson entered the playoffs with 57 playoff points.
• This year ties 2018 and 2023 for the smallest playoff-point gap between the first and second ranked drivers: 0
• The gap between the first and fifth-ranked drivers is just 9 playoff points. The lowest previously was in 2019 and 2029, when it was 19 points.

The playoff-starting graph shows a clear division between likely Round-of-8ers and the rest. Six drivers started with more than 20 playoff points. Shane van Gisbergen is a special case, but if you’re Larson, Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, or Bell, you entered Round 1 knowing you can make a mistake or two.

Chase Elliott and Chase Briscoe were in a second class: very likely to make the Round of 12, but questionable after that.

The rest of the drivers needed to perform really well in the first round.

Round of 16 Results

The next graph shows how the playoff drivers did. Green bars show playoff points at the start of the round. Red bars show how many points each driver earned during the first round.

I’ve ordered them by total points. The last four drivers on the right are the drivers who didn’t survive to the Round of 12.

Briscoe, who started with only 10 playoff points, earned the most race points of any driver in the playoffs. But in general, weaker drivers enter the playoffs with fewer points and earn fewer points in races. Austin Dillon, for example, earned just over a third of the points Briscoe did in the three races of this round.

The Round of 12

For reference, here’s the same graph for the just-complete Round of 12. Again, green bars are playoff points and red represents race points earned during the round.

The reduction to eight drivers was pretty predictable. No driver who entered the playoffs with fewer than 10 playoff points is still in contention. — with the exception of Joey Logano, who must own a warehouse full of rabbit’s feet, horseshoes and four-leaf clovers somewhere.

The Round of 8

Up to now, the top drivers’ playoff points protected them. That won’t be the case from here on because the race is so tight. One mistake can sink even one of the top-five seeds.

Here’s where we stand going into Las Vegas.

This year’s Round of 8 breaks even more records.

• The top two drivers, Hamlin and Blaney, are separated by just two points. That’s the second-smallest point gap. The 2018 playoffs had the top two drivers starting just one point apart.
• The third driver, Larson, is down just four points from Hamlin. That is the smallest separation between P1 and P3 in the nine years of this playoff format.
  • The next-smallest difference between P1 and P3 is nine points, in 2019 and 2023. That’s more than double this year’s difference
• The top five drivers are separated by eight points. That is by far the smallest points gap ever.
  • The next-closest gap was 18 points in 2019.
• The top seven drivers start the Round of 8 separated by just 18 points. That’s closer in points than the top three drivers in 2019.

One of the top-five drivers will be eliminated. Given how close they’re starting out, a single mistake by one of them could doom this season’s hopes — and give new hope to the other drivers.

Elliott and Briscoe are down in starting points, but both drivers won races during the playoffs. Only Larson, Byron and Logano have not won during the playoffs.

But Playoff Points Don’t Mean Everything

I mentioned that 2018 was the only season in which the top-two drivers at the start of the Round of 8 had a smaller points difference than this year. Kyle Busch came into the Round of 8 with 55 points, while Kevin Harvick entered with 54 points.

But you know who won the championship that year? A driver who entered the Round of 8 with just 15 points.

Joey Logano.