Darlington Didn’t Match the Hype. What Does Higher Horsepower Mean for Martinsville?

As we approach a higher-horsepower Martinsville, let’s reflect on last week’s Darlington race. NASCAR, drivers, and the media made some bold predictions about how the race might turn out.

Those were two of the more, shall we say, ‘enthusiastic’ predictions NASCAR sent out to the media in advance of the competition. But to most observers — and even statistically — the race looked pretty much like a standard Darlington race. A good race, to be sure, but not the chaos widely predicted.

Why Didn’t Darlington Deliver?

First, there were a LOT of changes. Horsepower was up, downforce down, temperatures were hotter than normal and tires were softer. Drivers and crew chiefs can usually predict pretty well how any of those changes by itself might affect a race. But predicting the effect all four changes at the same time is much more than four times harder.

Higher horsepower means earlier braking and more time off throttle. Drivers nursed the car through the turns, Gentler acceleration doesn’t wear tires as fast. The hype meant that drivers concentrated on tire-saving as they prepped for this race.

Sims are not magic. A number of drivers rolled their eyes when asked about how their sim experiences for Darlington. Many spent a lot of time crashing. But as good as sims can be, their models rely on real-world data. There’s wasn’t any.

Reputations. A lot drivers have been promoting more horsepower as the solution to better short-track racing. They have a lot on the line now that NASCAR made the change they requested.

• First, there’s the pride of being right, which increases the likelihood of being listened more in the future.
• Second, if a little more horsepower is better, it’s ammo for asking for even more horsepower.
• Third, they really want (as NASCAR does, as all of us do) short-track racing to be better.

Some benefit from chaos. You know who loves races with a lot of spins and accidents? Non-tier-one teams. The more wrecked racecars, the better your finish. You might even have a shot at winning, the same as at superspeedways.

Assuming, of course, you’re not one of the cars that wrecks.

This isn’t the first time people oversold a race. You need only look back to Bristol’s ever-changing tire issues to find evidence of predictions not matching reality.

How Similar Was the Race to Previous Darlington Races?

The pole time wasn’t that much different from the pole time in the spring 2023 race: 29.072 s this year vs. 29.028 s in 2023. The pole time in 2024 was 28.906 s and 28.774 in 2025.

There were 23 green-flag passes for the lead in 2026 compared to 18 in 2025. Note that the 2025 race included four laps of overtime. That stat counts every time the lead changes while the flag is green.

There were also 23 lead changes in 2026, compared to 17 in 2025.

The problem is that lead changes happen for a lot of reasons.

• Of the 23 lead changes in 2026, only 8 happened during either a green flag or on a restart.
• In 2025, 11 of the 23 green-flag passes for the lead happened on a green flag or restart.

Non-racing lead changes happen during pit stops. The more tire strategy comes into play, the longer the green-flag pit cycles will be and the more lead changes. A large number of cautions will also produce lead changes due to pit-road performance.

So… more lead changes this year, but not more green-flag-racing lead changes.

Twitter was full of people noting that Ryan Blaney made 124 green-flag passes Sunday at Darlington. You know how many passes he made last spring at Darlington? That’s right: 124.

There were 13.8 green-flag passes per lap in 2026 compared to 9.6 in 2025, but again, some of that cis due to green-flag pit-stop cycles.

What was Different at Darlington?

Happy Drivers

Drivers had good things to say about the racing, not just after Darlington, but after Phoenix as well. They really like having a little more input into the car in terms of having to baby it around corners and sense the ever-changing balance of the car. The word ‘fun’ popped up a lot after the race. When drivers are more confident in what their cars can do, they tend to be more aggressive chasing passes.

Maybe a Teensy Bit More Falloff?

I spent race morning glued to graphs and charts, trying to find something that showed a clear change in tire wear relative to previous races. Between driver variations and condition variations, I could not find a meaningful changing is how lap times increased over a green-flag run during practice.

A couple of drivers pushed really hard, and one even approached Hamlin’s predicted four-second-lap-time increase. But for most drivers, lap time increase was less than a second different than last spring at Darlington.

Spreading the Field

Here’s the major change due to higher horsepower. William Byron said that Hendrick Motorsports would love to have more horsepower everywhere. More horsepower, he said, will spread out the field: The good cars will get that much further ahead.

The qualifying times show this spread. Qualifying times are great: Everyone starts on new tires and runs one lap. Tire falloff isn’t a factor.

• In 2025, the top twenty drivers’ qualifying times were separated by 0.40 s.
• In 2026, that number is 0.66 seconds.

And it wasn’t just that Reddick had a fast car this year. The gap from first to second was roughly the same in 2025 as in 2026: 0.114s to 0.124s.

The final intervals are also much larger. Against, it’s not just a Reddick effect. The table below shows that the differences between Reddick and the next eight finishers this year is roughly ten times the difference between last year’s winner Hamlin and the same positions in 2025.

Position	Car – 2025	Seconds Back – 2025	Car – 2026	Seconds Back – 2026
1	11	0	45	0
2	24	.597	6	5.847
3	20	1.108	12	11.395
4	45	1.197	77	12.950
5	12	1.634	2	16.405
6	17	1.833	54	19.190
7	1	2.066	7	19.381
8	9	2.191	24	19.484
9	54	2.256	43	22.593

• The top nine drivers were within 2.256 seconds of the winner in 2025
• They were within 22.593 seconds of the winner this year.

Phoenix shows the same trend, although the spread isn’t as large. The margin of victory at Phoenix in spring 2025 was 0.049 s, compared to 0.399 s this year. The top nine drivers were within 1.378s in 2025, but 6.086 s in 2026.

So… Martinsville?

Teams are on the same tires as in last fall’s race, so that’s one less unknown. The temperature won’t be much different than the average late-March temperature. We’re really just looking at the increased horsepower. Plus, this is the first real short-short track with higher horsepower.

Expect more of what Phoenix showed. Drivers who can pass will. Carson Hocevar was in 17th place after making his final pit stop on lap 249 at Darlington. He finished fourth on lap 293. Only one of the cars in front of him gave up a position by pitting: He passed the rest.

It will be harder for drivers with ill handling cars to keep up — but not impossible. That doesn’t mean someone will run away with the race, although that could happen.

Even if we don’t see a huge difference in the nature of this year’s Martinsville race, NASCAR has gotten so much more flexible in the last few years. They view the rules packages as moving targets. That’s a win for everyone.