Lack of Passing at Indy: It’s Not the Car

Much talk this week about lack of passing at Indy and whether NASCAR a) should be racing there only with a different car and b) should be racing there at all. Let’s insert some actual data into the discussion.

I looked at all seven races on the Indy oval from 2017 through last weekend. That covers the stage-racing era. I classified the lead changes as tabulated by NASCAR and classified them according to whether the lead changes took place under yellow or green flags, and whether the lead change came about because the driver who took the lead did something (earned) vs. the lead changes that happened because the current leader did something (had an accident, ran out of fuel, pitted, etc.)

The Data

Below is the table showing the lead changes. By ‘All Races’, I meant all races at the Indy Oval.

Earned, On-Track Passing at Indy

The on-track earned lead changes are GF, GF-R (took the lead on a restart) and GF-RS (took the lead at the race start). So Kyle Larson taking the lead when Brad Keselowski runs out of fuel doesn’t count as an earned lead change in my book.

If we consider only green-flag lead changes, there are as many in the four Gen-6 races as there are in the three Gen-7 races. And I didn’t need a calculator to count them. Two in each category.

Lead changes at race or re-starts are the far more likely changes you’re going to see on track, under the green flag.

Earned Off-Track Passing

If a driver takes the lead on pit road by beating the leader off, that’s a lead change I felt ought to be considered earned. It doesn’t happen all that often.

Unearned Passing

The majority of passes at Indy are due to pit stops, either green-flag or yellow-flag. A long green-flag pit cycle can generate a huge number of lead changes. Of the 15 lead changes last weekend:

• 11/15 = 73.3% were due to green-flag pit cycles
• 1/15 = 6.7% were due to yellow-flag pit-stop-cycles

That’s a total of 80% of all lead change happening because of pit stops last weekend. That’s roughly comparable to the 2018 race.

A Note About BTL

BTL is a relatively newer NASCAR invention. On a restart, the control car starts the race, but that’s in the restart zone. It is possible, therefore, for the driver next to the control car to reach the start-finish line before the control car. If the leader takes the lead back later that lap, it’s recorded as a BTL and then GF-R.

I don’t like this way of tabulating because you’re giving someone credit for leading what is essentially a yellow-flag lap with the exception of the space from the restart zone to the start-finish line. So when you see BTL, what you should really do is use it to cancel one GF-R and drop the total number of lead changes by two.

What’s It All Mean for Passing at Indy?

It’s not necessarily the car, folks. There’s no meaningful difference between Gen-6 and Gen-7 races, except numbers of cautions. It’s only seven races, but there only were seven stage-racing races. It’s difficult for me to go further back than 2017 because you need pit stop data to make these designations and I don’t have it from before 2017.

Passing at Indy is hard. The track wasn’t designed for stock cars going 180 mph. But the Gen-6 car had the same struggles.

I’m not much of a traditionalist. Indy’s a lovely facility and certainly historic as far as IndyCar goes. But it’s too big for anything except the Indy 500. With a packed schedule and everyone wanting new venues, this is one of the places I would be willing to sacrifice.