Dr. Diandra’s 2025 NASCAR Championship Race Preview

The 2025 NASCAR Championship Race preview digs deep to find the stats you need to understand the potential outcomes of the all-or-nothing final race of the 2025 season.

It’s hard to argue against the championship format this year. Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney put up comparably strong numbers. But after 35 races and three knockout rounds, four drivers qualified to race for the championship: Chase Briscoe, William Byron, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. The driver who posts the best finish at Phoenix becomes the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Champion.

Pundits have opined everything from ‘It’s a toss up’ to ‘This is Denny’s year.’ My numbers (and my observations this year) lean pretty far to the latter. Let’s see what the numbers in the 2025 NASCAR Championship Race preview say.

Comparing the 2025 NASCAR Champion Contenders

In nine years of the current championship format (2017-present), only 14 different drivers have reached the final four.

• With this Sunday’s race, Hamlin joins Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. in a tie for most Championship 4 races during the stage-racing era at four each.
• Byron, Larson, Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick each have three appearances.
• Bell and Blaney have two appearances each.
• Briscoe, Ross Chastain and Tyler Reddick each have one attempt.

The graphic below summarizes the season-long stats for the 2025 NASCAR Championship contenders.

The four drivers race for just two organizations: Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) and Hendrick Motorsports (Chevy.) No Fords made it to the championship race this year, despite winning the championship title the last three years.

Wins

Hamlin has six wins, more than twice any other contender and more than anyone else in the series. It’s Hamlin’s third best career win rate, behind 2010 (8 wins in 36 races or 22.2%) and 2020 (7 wins in 36 races or 19.4%.). Winning Phoenix would make this is second-best career series in terms of win rate.

The rest of the championship drivers have three win each. Only Shane van Gisbergen (five wins) and Christopher Bell (four wins) took more checkered flags. (Ryan Blaney also has three wins this year.)

Keep in mind that Hamlin missed the Mexico City race for the birth of his son. That makes his win rate this year 17.6%, compared to the 8.8% win rate of the other three.

Together, these four drivers won 40% of all races this year. They’ve won 12 out of the 23 races (52.2%) at non-drafting oval tracks.

I won’t dwell on top-5 and top-10 finishes. The numbers are close, but this is the championship. All but one of the final races in this format was won by the champion. There are no more points for consistency to be had this year. If the champion doesn’t win the race, expect him to finish in the top three.

Advantage: Hamlin

DNFs

How likely a driver is to fall out of a race is the second-most important factor in my analysis. For example, Larson’s six DNFs in 35 races last year definitely contributed to his not making the Championship 4.

Larson’s had only two DNFs this year, the fewest of any 2025 NASCAR championship contender. Of those two DNFs, one was mechanical (a suspension issue at Darlington I) and the other was an accident at Charlotte. The Charlotte crash was his last DNF of the season.

Each of the other drivers has had four DNFs. But where two of six Hendrick Motorsports DNFs are attributable to mechanical issues, Briscoe and Hamlin have a total of five out of eight race-ending mechanical failures this year.

Two of the five Joe Gibbs Racing mechanical failures happened last week at Martinsville, where Briscoe and Hamlin both blew engines. The team says they identified the parts responsible for the failure and don’t expect that to be a concern for Phoenix.

JGR has also had plenty of non-race-ending mechanical issues in 2025: they’ve had clutch issues, steering issues, brake issues and more. With this being the finale, I’m sure JGR employees have checked and double-checked every part and piece before the cars headed west.

Advantage: Larson

Cautions

I’m limiting my caution numbers to non-drafting ovals. Pack-racing-induced crashes simply aren’t relevant to Phoenix. Some of my numbers may differ from NASCAR’s official numbers. My counting policy is that if a car has to pit after an accident for any reason (even to reset a diffuser, they were involved in the accident.

A reminder: Involvement doesn’t imply responsibility.

• Hamlin was involved in four cautions on the 23 non-drafting oval races, for a 17.4% involvement in caution rate.
• Byron was involved in five cautions (21.7%)
• Larson had a part in seven cautions (30.4%)
• Briscoe had the most caution-filled season with nine, which is almost a 40% caution rate per race.

Advantage: Hamlin, with Byron close behind

Age and Experience

There are so many factors that go into racing that driver age isn’t a negative once you reach the championship race. In fact, I would argue it might even be a positive.

At 16 days shy of turning 45 as of race day, Hamlin is the oldest driver to compete in a Championship-4 race in the stage-racing era. He held that distinction in 2020, also. Martin Truex Jr. edged Hamlin out for that title in 2021, the last year Hamlin made the championship race.

Hamlin seems different this year. But the prime example is his gracious win at Las Vegas in the opening race of the Round of 8 in the midst of a contentious lawsuit, a new baby, and his father being in ill health. He also has a new crew chief in Chris Gayle, because his former crew chief, Chris Gabehardt, is guiding all of JGR.

Larson has been with HMS since 2021 and has one of the best crew chiefs working in Cliff Daniels. Their strength is identifying weaknesses and fixing them during the race. With the new tire combination, that skill could be decisive if some teams miss the setup. The pair are also the only one with a Cup Series championship.

Although Byron is the youngster of the group at only 27.9 years only, he’s been with Hendrick for his entire Cup career (since 2018) and with crew chief Rudy Fugle since 2021. He also has two prior appearances in the final round.

Briscoe is at a disadvantage in the experience category. Pretty much everything — team, crew chief, crew, manufacturer and size of spotlight — was new this year. In my opinion, he’s still finding his feet, Watch out for him next year.

Advantage: Hamlin and Larson (tie).

2025 Championship Race Preview: Drilling Down

Season-long statistics are easy to find. The problem is that not all races are relevant to the skills needed to win at Phoenix. Nor do they take into account recent momentum and progress throughout the year.

Here are some average finishes for conditions I feel are more relevant to this weekend’s race. All stats are from 2025 and I have not included DNFs in calculating these average finishes. If a driver DNFs at Phoenix, it’s over. I’m interested in what they show when they’re running competitively.

Driver	Finish Phoenix I	Avg Finish All Tracks	Avg Finish: Non-Drafting Ovals	Average Finish: 1-1.49-mi Ovals	Average Finish: Playoff Races at Non-Drafting Ovals
Briscoe	35	9.81	8.75	10.0	9.6
Byron	6	11.16	11.28	8.00	13.3
Hamlin	2	11.43	7.50	3.86	12.7
Larson	3	12.06	7.95	8.83	11.8

NOTE: Bell won Phoenix I in Spring 2025

Key to the table

• The first column shows the driver’s finish at Phoenix in the spring.
• The first average finish column is each driver’s average finish position for 2025 at all tracks.
• In the second column, I’ve recalculated the average finish for only non-drafting ovals for 2025. That includes all ovals that aren’t Talladega, Daytona or Atlanta.
• The third column is the average finish for the class of tracks that includes Phoenix.
• The last column is the average finish during the playoffs for non-drafting oval tracks.

Previous Phoenix Performance

Spring’s finishes at Phoenix don’t tell us much. Everyone did well, with the exception of Briscoe, who crashed early.

Advantage: No one, really.

Average Finishes

Hamlin and Larson posted the two highest overall average finishes of the four, but when we narrow down to more relevant numbers, they stands out. They are one-two for non-drafting tracks and 1-1.49-mile ovals.

Hamlin has a surprising 3.86 average finish on ovals between 1 and 1.49 miles in length this year — and it’s the same average if you include DNFs because Hamlin had no DNFs at tracks of this type. He won at Darlington I, Dover and Gateway, then has second, third, seventh and 12th-place finishes at the other races. Gateway and New Hampshire are arguably the closest tracks to Phoenix.

Advantage: Hamlin

Momentum

On the basis of improvement over the season, average finishes in the playoffs, and points scored in the playoffs, Briscoe has the advantage. He earned 337 points over the last nine races, only three fewer than Larson. He’s the only driver who earned a hundred points or more in each of the three rounds, and he’s coming off a recent win at Talladega.

Hamlin won three weeks ago, and Byron last week.

Larson’s last win? May 11th.

Advantage: Briscoe

Head-to-Head(-to-Head-to-Head)

In every race but one in the stage-racing era (2017-present), the series champion has attained that status by winning the final race. This year, however, we have an extremely strong set of non-championship-competing drivers.

Blaney seeks redemption after a second-place finish eliminated him last week. Bell, a four-time winner this year (including the spring Phoenix race), also has something to prove.

So let’s consider how often each driver has beaten the other three. On the 23 non-drafting oval races this year:

• Hamlin out-finished the other three drivers nine times (six wins)
• Larson beat all three drivers six times (three wins)
• Byron took to the top spot among the four five times (two wins)
• Briscoe beat the other three drivers three times (two of those being wins)

Advantage: Hamlin and Larson – both beat all the other drivers in three races that neither of them won.

Mistakes

The worst kind of loss is the self-inflicted kind. Let’s look at penalties and other mistakes.

Penalties

NASCAR has issued 864 total penalties this year, but 530+ made no difference to the outcome. No one worries about pitting before pit road is open, or having too many crew members over the wall when you’ve just been wrecked. You’re already at the back of the field. Being sent there is meaningless.

I focus on penalties that aren’t intentional: The unforced errors that change or could potentially change the race outcome.

Larson has the best rules adherence this year, with two speeding penalties and one for a wheel coming off the car. Byron is tied with three infractions: two speeding penalties and one time they pit when pit road was closed because they would have run out of gas otherwise. I classify that as a unforced error.

Briscoe had five on-track infractions, including speeding twice, removing equipment, a tire violation, and losing a wheel on track.

Unforced errors have always been Hamlin’s bugaboo. This year, that includes:

• Three speeding penalties
• Two times he drove through more than three boxes before entering his own
• An equipment interference penalty
• A wheel left loose enough that it came off on track.

You can’t blame the driver for loose wheels, but running through too many boxes is a rookie mistake. This is where Hamlin’s spotter and crew chief will need to be extra vigilant in reminding him of his speed lights and his approach to the pit stall.

Advantage: Larson/Byron

Non-Penalty Mistakes

Breaking NASCAR’s rules is one thing. The bigger challenge for most drivers — especially in this race — is that even tiny mistakes can cost you the championship. Drivers will need to be on guard against common mistakes like missing your marks in the pit box, missing the call to pit road, or stalling the car leaving the pit box.

Here, again, Larson comes out best. The biggest mistake I find in my notes for him was having to re-pit when the crew left a wheel loose at Nashville.

Byron’s crew were slowed by wheel issues (over-tightened, dropped nut) three times. But one of those was the second Darlington race, when the team had issues with an air hose not being attached to a pit gun.

Briscoe had five wheel-changing problems, including having to return to pit road after a stop because of a loose tire. A jackman also dropped the jack while moving to the other wise of the car.

Hamlin again has (by far) the most issues in this category. We’ve got at least five wheel-changing issues and three problems with the jacking car.

Advantage: Larson

Motivation

Here’s the one non-numerical category I include in my calculations. These drivers are experiencing the most pressure they will experience all year. Performing under that pressure has a lot to do with maturity, experience and motivation.

Briscoe’s made no secret of his worries that he wouldn’t live up to the No.19 legacy. I hope he’s sleeping a little better at this point. It would be quite a coup to win the Championship with a new team in your first year, but this won’t be Briscoe’s only chance.

I can not imagine how daunting it must be to be a Hendrick driver, especially if you’re Byron. You’re on the same team as one of the best racers ever and NASCAR’s perennial most popular driver. You’re almost predestined to live in the shadows. But Byron’s a pretty low-key, private guy, so that may suit him. He got a taste of outshining his teammates when he won the Daytona 500 this year and he’s proven himself a good points racer. On the negative side, he doesn’t always show the same level of aggressiveness some of his competitors have.

Larson is Larson. He’s so good, he doesn’t have to think about many of the things other drivers have to consciously consider. Assuming he stays in NASCAR as long as a Jimmie Johnson or a Jeff Gordon, he should be a multi-time champion. But his 2025 season stalled out after after Charlotte and his Indy 500 run. He hasn’t won a playoff race this year.

Hamlin missed the last three Championship 4 battles. He was the big loser in 2022 when Ross Chastain made the now-illegal Hail Melon move. A mistake by Toyota last year that violated NASCAR’s engine inspection requirements cost Hamlin 75 points and 10 playoff points.

Briscoe, Byron and Larson can look confidently to the future. That’s not the case with Hamlin. You young’uns won’t understand until you get to the age where you start facing your parents’ and/or your own impending mortality. That is a damn powerful motivation.

No one knows what championship format the series will race under next year. If points become more important, that likely disadvantage Hamlin. Moving the championship away from shorter tracks would also be a negative for him.

TL; DR

This is Hamlin’s best chance to win a championship. He’s achieved 60 race wins, He’s won the Daytona 500 three times. All he’s missing is a championship.

He just can’t beat himself. If Hamlin encounters mechanical difficulties, or gets involved in someone else’s mess, Larson is the next most likely champ.

This year, at least.