Dover v. Nashville: Does One Track Predict The Other?

We all know how competitive siblings can be, which is why I chose to parse this as Dover v. Nashville. The two tracks are often called “sister tracks”, which raises an interesting question: Do drivers who run well at Dover also run well at Nashville?

More Like Cousins than Sisters

Dover and Nashville are both concrete tracks, with Nashville having another third of a mile in length on its slightly smaller kin track. But a look at track details shows that the two are more cousins than siblings.

The most standout difference in this table is the banking: Dover, while slightly smaller, has 10 degrees more banking. That makes a huge difference in how the cars turn, as well as what happens in accidents. Nashville is nowhere near as ‘self-cleaning’ as Dover.

But the true story doesn’t appear until you look at the track shapes.

Dover is a true oval, while Nashville is a trioval, more akin to Las Vegas or Kentucky in shape, but with a different surface. The lengths of the straightaways in the table hint at this difference, but it becomes really apparent when you see the photos.

You spend a lot more time turning at Dover. Despite being 1760 feet smaller, Dover offers 800 extra feet of turning than Nashville. At Dover, 60% of the track length is turning and 40% is going straight. At Nashville, 42% of the length is turning, 27% is straight and 31% is transitioning between the two, according to Van Walling’s extensive research into track construction.

Speaking of Turns…

The use of resin from apron to wall around the turns was a big story at Dover. But the wider-than-usual approach was actually implemented first at Nashville. The track has again applied the resin which, remember, isn’t sticky in itself, but rather promotes rubber building up on the track. That, in turn, increases grip. The tire dragon was used to lay down a base of rubber.

We saw in Dover that this application widened the track fairly quickly, giving drivers multiple lanes to race in. That’s really helpful for a driver whose car doesn’t turn as well, but can perhaps diamond the corners better.

So even though the tracks are both concrete and comparable in size, they race differently.

Who Wins at Dover v. Nashville?

Let’s compare the winners for the last five years at the two tracks. Keep in mind that the Gen-7 car debuted in 2022. The Cup Series has also only raced Nashville since 2021.

Dover hosted the All-Star Race this year. Denny Hamlin won, making him the most dominant driver at the Monster Mile since Jimmie Johnson. Although his prowess at Dover hasn’t translated into a win at Nashville, Hamlin has started on the pole twice in five races run there, with a best finish of third in 2025 and 2023.

Who Earns Top-Five Finishes at Dover v. Nashville?

I compared the number of top-five finishes at each track for active drivers. The table below shows the results. I am not including this year’s All-Star Race in the data because the format was not that of a typical race.

Percentage of Top-Five Finishes

Analysis

• This could be Kyle Larson’s chance to not get asked every week about his year+ losing streak.
  • In addition to a Nashville win, he’s got two more top-five finishes in five starts.
  • Larson has not finished outside the top 10 at any of the last five Nashville races. That’s about as close as you’re going to get to a sure bet.
• The table seems to suggest that Chastain should do well at Nashville. He either finishes in the top five or out of the top 10, but Trackhouse has struggled this year so maybe this stat isn’t so significant.
• The * after Carson Hocevar’s name is because he ran only two races at Nashville, so that 50% number is a single top-five finish.
• Joey Logano has only a 40% top-five finish at Nashville, but an 80% top-10 finish rate.
• Christopher Bell has no top-five finishes at Nashville, but has an 80% top-10 finish rate
• Elliott and Hamlin are slightly better at Dover than at Nashville, but both have strong finishes at Nashville.
• Bowman has the Hendrick history of good finishes at Dover, but has struggled at Nashville. His top-five finish rate is zero there, but so is his top-10 finish rate.

So not everyone who has done well at Dover also does well at Nashville. But don’t ignore the similarities!

Related Articles

• 2024 Nashville Race Report
• 2024 Top Finishes by Team – By the Numbers
• 2023 Nashville Race Report: Lead Changes
• 2024 Nashville Practice Report
• 2021 Dover Spring Race Report