The Chase/The Playoffs

Are Recent Martinsville Winners More Likely to Win Now?

A lot of statistical analyses emphasize recent Martinsville winners. Most remind us of Hendrick Motorsports’ 31 wins. But I wonder whether people are over-emphasizing the importance of wins — or even recent wins? Is there any data that supports the idea that winning the last Martinsville race (like Chase Elliott) or the last Fall race (William Byron) gives those drivers higher likelihoods of winning this weekend? […]

The Chase/The Playoffs

How to Think About The Chase

With five races left in the regular season, I’m thinking about The Chase a lot. I’m wondering who is going to earn that top seed and the 100 extra points to start The Chase with. Coming in second puts you at a 25-point deficit before you’ve even run a race. […]